How do I see the year 2018? Low growth and productivity, a declining working population, and an unsustainable rise in animal spirits. Everything comes to an end, and the longer it takes, the worse it is.
BoAML | After Brexit, we followed through on our scenario analysis, penciling in a full-blown UK recession, cutting 0.5% off of Euro Area growth and slicing 0.2% off of US and global growth. Events since Brexit have not changed our call. The pound has plunged more than 11% since the vote, and both consumer and business confidence have tumbled.
Jarno Lang | For the past 12 months, headlines over refugees and capsized boats have dominated the news agenda. The first month of 2016 was the deadliest January to date, counting casualties in the Mediterranean alone. The number of displaced people—about 60 million—is now on par with that experienced during World War II.
MADRID | March 24, 2015 | By J.P Marín-Arrese | On face value, Europe is recovering from a bad spell while the US is growing at an invidious rate. However, the wild currency swing may yet destabilise the global economy. Janet Yellen’s remarks on the threat of an overvalued dollar were designed to preserve a balanced performance, and indeed sparked a quick reaction in exchange rates. Yet, as the ECB unfurls its massive quantitative easing programme, volatility in the currency markets could inflict further damage.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The designs of the markets are unfathomable. Mario Draghi might forget the QE idea and the British housing sector might collapse. These are some of the Saxo Bank’s ludicrous forecasts for 2015. A year ago they claimed there would be a default in the Russian debt and the collapse of the oil price, and they were right. Nonetheless, most of the experts that talked to The Corner agree on a scenario for 2015 led by the ECB’s quantitative easing, the oil price reduction and low interest rates.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | The US continues to come top of the class in economic terms which, combined with the effect of central bank policy divergence, is clearly driving global flows. Country- specific equity ETF flows in October show that the US saw by far the largest inflows last month followed by the UK, Korea and Australia. Europe was once again a laggard in both economic terms and in flows: Germany, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, saw net outflows in October due to these growth concerns. Within BRIC, China saw the largest outflow since April last year as growth concerns continue to persist but Brazil, India and Mexico saw inflows.
MADRID | The Corner | JPMorgan’s economic outlook forecasts that global growth is taking hold around midyear and as a rebound from weakness the US and Japan is reinforcing a more modest acceleration in the Euro area and emerging Asia. If JPMorgan analysts are right, this episode’s contours should mirror growth pivots in earlier expansions (during 2003 and 1993).
ZURICH | The Corner | UBS team reduced on Thursday their Overweight in Global Equities. In the near- term, they see some deterioration in the risk/return trade off, following a large re-rating in equity markets. However, the context is that they are coming from their largest ever Overweight in Equities and that it still remains their favoured asset class (with European Equities as an Overweight).
LONDON | By The Corner | Cross-economy inflation readings have surprised to the top side, according to Barclays experts. This has occurred despite analyst forecasts for a pick-up in the pace of price increases. These surprises have been – like the downside surprises of the past couple years – remarkably broad based. They also began before the start of the recent rise in oil prices.
LONDON | By Michael Gavin at Barclays | The recent decline of headline and core inflation in the US and Europe has intensified interest in the economics of deflation, particularly the perceived danger that Europe may be headed for a deflationary episode. Deflation is particularly unsettling for many policymakers and market participants because of the theoretical risk that it may render monetary policy ineffective, creating a ‘liquidity trap’ from which it may be very difficult to escape.