Since Portugal emerged from the crisis in 2014, its real estate sector has undergone a remarkable recovery. Caixabank Research points that the evolution of house prices, after a fall of 16.3% in nominal terms between 2007-13, have risen by an average of 5.3% per year and are now back at pre-crisis levels.
Fitch has been the last agency to raise its rating on Portugal to investment grade last Friday. The previous increase from S&P in September already showed signs of the sick person being in very good health. Neighbouring Spain should also see an improvement in its credit quality and be included in the A tranche, at least by S&P and Fitch.
In Sober Look, Marcello Minenna gives us a clue about a possible new breach in the euro’s structure. A few years ago (2011-2012), when the euro was going through its worst time, one of the consequences was that the central banks in the peripheral countries increased their debt position with TARGET2.
The blog RWER recently published a very interesting article about Ireland. It tells the tale of an economic miracle, which no-one has been able to figure out yet. And it raises doubts that can well apply in Spain’s case. And Krugman has written an inspiring post about the possible perverse relationship between debt and the decline in Portugal’s population, which could call into question the theory of Optimal Monetary Areas.
Jens Bastian via Macropolis | Portugal and Greece are geographically located at the opposite ends of the eurozone’s southern periphery. In the course of the past five years, both countries had to confront various political calamities and economic crises, culminating in having to seek financial assistance from international official creditors.
Fernando Barciela | Passos Coelho won the elections in Portugal with 38.6% of the vote, but lost his majority in parliament. Even though he has been tasked with forming a new government, Portuguese left parties have adopted a pragmatic approach which makes an agreement between the Socialist Party, Communist Party and Bloco de Esquerda increasingly likely. For the time being, they have already appointed Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, a socialist, as the President of the parliament.
BARCLAYS | The results of the general election in Portugal came in broadly in line with recent polls: the PSD/CDS conservative coalition, currently in government, won again with 38,5% of the vote, but it fell short of an absolute majority of seats in parliament. Political instability could potentially also result in early elections after one year.
MADRID | The Corner | Internal demand is recovering within the euro area, activity is getting back on track and experts believe that companies are about to start investing, hiring more workers and boosting consumption. However, credit flow, the production gap and unemployment are still major challenges. Analysts at Cortal Consors think that Spain and Portugal are the Eurozone countries most at risk of a “prolonged period of low inflation or mild deflation.”
MADRID | The Corner | Peripheral equities and bonds have been strongly favored by Draghi’s speech last Friday at Jackson Hole with intense improvements in sovereign credits from Portugal, Spain and Italy, which have reached record lows. In particular, Spain’s 10-year bonds yields are at 2.12% under the 2.38% of comparable U.S. Treasuries and especially today the Spanish Treasury has reduced sharply the interest rates of three- and nine-months bills in an auction of € 3,500 million at historical lows, without entering in negative territory like on the secondary market. Nevertheless, UBS strategists are starting to change their bullish view on peripheral Europe basing on market and fundamental arguments.
BERLIN | Alberto Lozano | The Portuguese government splits BES into two banks. On the one hand, it will inject €4.9 billion of capital in a new company called “Novo Banco”, which will get all the assets and employees from the crisis-hit bank. On the other hand, all toxic assets mostly related to its exposure to the Espirito Santo family will stay in the current Espirito Santo’s “bad bank”.