Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders │ The yield curve has been a reliable element in the prediction of US recessions over the last four decades. With only one exception, every time the curve has inverted, the US economy has entered into recession within 18 months.
Top economists and heads of UK institutions and companies are demanding a clear strategy from Downing Street on how the government will collaborate to weather the Brexit storm. Many are sceptical about the overly-optimistic picture painted by Theresa May and Philip Hammond about the economic future.
It’s not even four months since the UK referendum on remaining in the European Union, resulting in the successful vote for what is known as Brexit. The questions on which Great Britain wants to base its exit negotations from March 2017 are being able to maintain all the advantages of an EU member, like the freedom of movement of goods and capital, while still controlling its own borders.
LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | Raise the main interest rate? Certainly not. Or not yet, anyway. While the US economy is not showing clear signs of having overcome the assisted breathing phase (i.e. printing money or the recently wound up phase of quantitative easing that the Fed finished two weeks ago), the chances are that the Bank of England will keep the price of the pound at a very low level.
LONDON | The Corner | The issue of capital tension has been the key driver of BNP Paribas’ UK bank recommendations over the last nine months, and this remains the case. These experts have no Outperform ratings with the exception of Lloyds – which should broadly meet all three parts of the UK framework within 18 months. They believe this consultation is particularly unhelpful to Barclays.