UK GDP rises +0.4% driven mainly by higher public spending

reino unido

Bankinter: GDP (year-on-year) rises +0.4% vs +0.2% estimated and previous. Quarter-on-quarter +0.2% vs 0% estimated and +0.1% previous.

Assessment: GDP growth surprises positively, although it is mainly driven by the higher contribution of Public Spending (+3.1% against – 1.8% previously). There is also a reactivation of Private Consumption (+0.7% against 0% estimated and previous), which is also reflected in Imports (+1.0% against -3.8% previous). Exports fall, but with less intensity (-2.5% against -6.9% previously). Finally, Investment, although it beats expectations, 0% against -0.6% estimated, worsens considerably against the previous record, +2.4%. Therefore, GDP beats expectations and recovers strength despite a complex context for the UK. It is affected by high inflation (in June +7.9%) and BoE rate hikes (Headline rate 5.25%). In addition, other factors are affecting the country, such as tension in the labour market due to labour shortages, low productivity and Brexit. In our view, it is difficult for GDP growth to exceed +1% in 2023 and 2024.

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.