UK economy

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UK GDP rises +0.4% driven mainly by higher public spending

Bankinter: GDP (year-on-year) rises +0.4% vs +0.2% estimated and previous. Quarter-on-quarter +0.2% vs 0% estimated and +0.1% previous. Assessment: GDP growth surprises positively, although it is mainly driven by the higher contribution of Public Spending (+3.1% against – 1.8% previously). There is also a reactivation of Private Consumption (+0.7% against 0% estimated and previous), which is also reflected in Imports (+1.0% against -3.8% previous). Exports fall, but with less intensity…


Red alert in UK: CPI rebounds in May to repeat previous month’s +8.7% and core CPI rises to +7.1%

Banca March: May’s inflation data has precipitated a sharp move in UK official rate expectations that put the UK’s terminal rate at 6% and assigns a 40% probability that the Bank of England would launch a 50bp “jumbo” hike at Thursday’s meeting, which would raise official rates to 5%. The concern stems from the rise in core inflation to 7.1% and the eleventh consecutive upward surprise in headline inflation to…

Does anyone truly understand Brexit?

UK grows a paltry 0.1% in 4Q22; still 0.6% below pre-covid levels

CoM | The UK economy recorded a minimal expansion of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, following the contraction of a tenth of a percentage point in Europe’s second largest economy in the third quarter of last year, according to revised data released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). As a result, GDP is now estimated to have risen by 4.1% in 2022 as a whole,…

brexit ruptura

Far from easing, UK CPI rebounds to +10.4% year-on-year from +10.1% previously, puts pressure on BoE

Bankinter : February’s CPI brings a surprise rebounding to +10.4% year-on-year from +10.1% foreseen vs +9.9% expected. Month-on-month is; +1.1% vs +0.6% expected and -0.6% foreseen. The core rate is also surprising, rebounding to +6.2% year-on-year from +5.8% previously and +5.7% foreseen. Month-on-month; +1.2% vs +0.8% expected and -0.9% previously. Analysis team’s view: Negative news. This month’s reading disappoints and, far from easing, as has been the case for the…

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UK dodges recession in last quarter of 2022 with 4% GDP growth

CoM | The UK economy, the second largest in the Old Continent, stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2022, narrowly managing to avoid going into technical recession, following a 0.2% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported. Despite dodging recession in the last quarter of 2022, the British economy contracted by 0.5% in December, after growing…

The security of the UK’s LNG supply is precarious

Gas Price Spike: How UK Government Failures Made A Global Crisis Worse

Michael Bradshow ( The Conversation) | The UK government has been in emergency talks with leaders from the energy industry as gas prices (and with them, electricity prices) have soared to more than four times the level they were at the same time in 2020. Concerns are growing about the security of winter gas supplies, and industries reliant on gas, such as the fertiliser industry, are curtailing production, threatening various…

The UK's deregulation from the EU will take Boris Johnson initially longer to sell

Social Care Tax Rise Is Austerity By Another Name

The Conversation | Boris Johnson has unveiled an additional 1.25% levy on national insurance paid by wage earners and employers, which will raise £14 billion a year to help pay for the NHS and reforms to social care. Coming on the back of rises to income tax and corporation tax that were announced in the budget in March, it is the latest example of the government using tax rises rather than austerity to rein in public finances that have been hit by the cost of the pandemic. We asked Alex de Ruyter, a Professor of Economics at Birmingham City University, to explain how it would affect different parts of society.

hard brexit

How The UK Went From Leader To Laggard

Compared to 2019, when the entire market was eagerly watching events surrounding Brexit, both the Covid-19 crisis and the U.S. elections are attracting more attention than the imminent end of the transition phase. However, the clock is ticking without mercy, as EU chief negotiator Barnier keeps reminding us. In light of the time it will take for legal processes in the UK, as well as on the continent, only a few weeks remain to avert a disruptive UK exit from the European common market, DWS explain.




Brexit uncertainties

Brexit Freeport Plan: Empty Promise Or Gateway For Tax Crime?

European Views | In the first weeks of the United Kingdom’s official departure from the European Union, one of the most significant moves made by Boris Johnson’s government has been the launch of a “freeport” plan masterminded by Johnson’s handpicked Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Downing Street claims that its decision to create “up to ten new innovative Freeports” – special trade zones where goods can transit or be stored without having to pay taxes or customs – means “hubs of business and enterprise will be opened across the UK.”