Banc Sabadell | From the conference call results 2024 and update of the Strategic Plan 25-27 of Naturgy (NTGY) we highlight: Given that market conditions are now more complex for investing, they prefer to be more cautious, so if they do not find investments they will distribute the accumulation of cash to shareholders; all this would be conditional on a floor in the BBB rating (S&P).
They are committed to increasing the free float (up to around 15%) and liquidity so that the stock can return to the MSCI indices. By July 2025, it is expected to have all the approvals for the offer to purchase 10% of the capital from shareholders and then begin to restore the free float (at its discretion and without damaging the share price or income statement).
The target for NFD 2027e of €16,000 million takes into account the purchase of treasury stock, but not the potential cash in from the placement. M&A operations are not included either, even though this option exists.
Assessment: Yesterday the stock rose 4.42% following the announced improvement of the DPA and the share buyback, where we believe the share price would already discount the offered price taking into account the pro rata that will occur. We maintain an underweight position due to its potential (-8%), although in the short term the improvement in the dividend and the announcement of the purchase of 10% by the company itself (which, on the negative side, could reduce speculation about an M&A operation) will continue to be a support for the stock.
