Renta 4 | Laboratorios Rovi (ROVI) will publish its Q2 2025 results on Thursday 24 July at 10 a.m.
We expect some improvement on the figures recorded in the previous quarter, although it is true that the year-on-year comparison in this second quarter is much more challenging, and in this regard, Rovi will present figures that, at first glance, appear worse.
Thus, we expect Rovi to report revenues of €160 million, a figure that exceeds first-quarter revenues (up €5.3 million on Q1 2025), but represents a year-on-year decline of 10%. We estimate a 7% increase in revenue in Specialty Pharmaceuticals, driven by Okedi (Renta 4 estimate up 116%), as we expect flat revenue in the HBPM franchise. CMO revenues, although higher than in Q1 2025, when there were some shutdowns (Renta 4 2Q25 estimate €43 million against €35 million in Q1 2025), will be up to 37% lower than in the previous year, given lower technology transfer revenues and lower sales of the Moderna vaccine.
The positive news comes from the gross margin, which we estimate will reach 63% in 2Q25 after recording an improvement of 130 bps, mainly due to: 1) lower raw material costs in the production of heparins, 2) higher sales of Okedi, which generates a higher margin as it is our own product, and 3) lack of technology transfer revenue, which generates a low margin. With all these factors contributing positively, we expect Rovi to close 1H25 with a gross margin of 60.8%, an improvement of 140 bps. We estimate that this trend of margin improvement will continue and even intensify in the coming years as CMO revenue recovers.
In terms of EBITDA, we expect a year-on-year decline of 18% to €36 million in Q2 2025 ( down 5% to $66.3 million in 1H25) thanks to cost control (positive considering the expected increase in personnel costs due to the signing of the new agreement), which has allowed the EBITDA margin on sales to remain at around 21% for the half-year as a whole.
We maintain our recommendation of OVERWEIGHT and P.O. of €71/share.
