Bankinter | OPEC+ agreed to increase production in September by 547,000 b/d. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase. With this move, it completes the restoration of 2.2 Mbd that it withdrew from the market in 2023. OPEC justifies its decision on the basis of the stability of the global economic outlook and the solid fundamentals of the market (low inventory levels). As a reference, OPEC+ (which includes other countries such as Russia and Mexico) produces 41 million bpd (just over 40% of global supply).
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative news (fall in oil prices) for several reasons. (i) OPEC presented its global demand estimates, which showed a reduction. They estimate that demand will increase by 1.2mbd in 2025 and 1.3mbd in 2026 (approimately 1.2% of global supply each year), in both cases representing a slight reduction compared to the previous estimate. Therefore, the measure combines lower demand and higher production. (ii) It highlights the strong divergence of opinions within OPEC and is a response to several countries that are producing above their quotas. Furthermore, we estimate that this tension between them will intensify in the coming months, as a scenario of price moderation due to the economic slowdown (tariffs and Chinese weakness), the boom in clean energy and greater efficiency will lead members to try to produce more to offset this fall in prices. (iii) Production increases could be announced at successive meetings (the next one is on 7 September), as OPEC is not willing to reduce its global market share. This is especially true in a context in which the United States is pressuring India not to buy Russian oil. We estimate that oil prices will fall today, although they will remain at a slightly higher level due to typical seasonal demand at this time of year.
