Renta 4 | Aena (AENA) will publish its 9M25 results on Wednesday, 29 October 2025, at the market opening, with a conference at 1:00 p.m. P.O. €21.03, recommendation to underweight.
- Driven by air traffic, which in 9M in Spain has exceeded annual forecasts (up 3.9% against 3.4% Aena and Renta 4 guidance, and 3.9% consensus, our forecast is that Aena will update this guidance to around 4%), we expect aeronautical revenues to increase by around 5% and commercial revenues by over 8.5%. We expect the international area to grow at a double-digit rate thanks to increases in traffic in all areas (5.4% in Brazil and 4.8% in Luton). In terms of margins, we do not expect any significant change. However, lower depreciation and amortisation and lower financial expenses will allow net profit to improve above the increase in EBITDA.
- Despite an improvement in expected operating cash flow generation and a limited level of investment, we expect the dividend payment to increase the group’s net debt, keeping the level of leverage stable, although we expect it to moderate in the last quarter of the year.
- At the conference, we will see if the company has changed its view on traffic trends after the good performance so far this year. No changes are expected in the planned development of capacity increase plans. We will see if there is any concern about RyanAir’s departure from some airports, or if they are confident that other airlines will fill these seats.
