The monthly figures have come as a surprise – and in this case, a pleasant one. Intermoney analysts had not expected year-on-year growth of 5% in May to 30.7 million passengers, even taking into account factors such as weekends. Their forecast for 2026 as a whole, 2.2%, now appears somewhat conservative.
Report by Intermoney
Aena announced its May passenger traffic figures last Friday whilst the market was open. Figures for Spain last month showed a cumulative increase of 3.7% for 2026, exceeding 124 million passengers. Growth in May specifically was 5% to 30.7 million. Last month’s year-on-year increases at Barajas and El Prat were 5% and 6% respectively, whilst the Mediterranean airports of Valencia and Alicante rose sharply by 12%, although Tenerife South fell by 4%. So far in 2026, both Barajas and El Prat have slightly exceeded the national average, with an increase of approximately 4%, whilst, once again, Tenerife South has seen a decline of 3%, slightly worse than Lanzarote’s 1%. Seville, perhaps reflecting the suspension of AVE rail services to Madrid, saw its traffic rise by 9% in both May and for 2026 as a whole. Growth in Brazil and the UK (Luton) was similar to the national figures.
Assessment: For once, the monthly figures have surprised us, and in this case for the better, as we did not expect year-on-year growth of 5% in May, even taking into account factors such as weekends. Our forecast for 2026 as a whole, 2.2%, now seems somewhat conservative. It does not appear that the crisis in the Middle East is affecting traffic in Spain. For the year as a whole, we expect Aena to post an EBITDA of almost €4,000 million (up 6%), including a 7% increase in the commercial business, which is likely to report figures slightly higher than those of Aeronáutica for the first time. Our net profit forecast is €2,269 million (up 6%)
