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Articles by JP Marin Arrese

About the Author

JP Marin Arrese
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese is a Madrid-based economic analyst and observer. He regularly publishes articles in the Spanish leading financial newspaper 'Expansión'.
tsipras

In Europe 9th February 2015

Greek government has little to lose

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | By taking pre-emptive action against Greece, Draghi is behaving like the Nottingham Sheriff ruthlessly enforcing law and order according to Berlin rules. He was forced to act only by the end of this month. Taking on his own the task of imposing a 7-day ultimatum to Tsipras, he has shattered his neutral stance as a monetary policymaker. Yet, his move might backfire should Greece refuse caving in to pressure. After all, it has little to lose. 

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In Europe 5th February 2015

Draghi corners Tsipras

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Tsipras rebellion was ruthlessly quelled by the ECB governing board last night. Neither Greek sovereigns, nor publicly-guaranteed bond issues, will stand as eligible collateral for funding facilities, thus plunging the financial system into a crippling credit-crunch. The emergency liquidity arrangement managed by the local central bank severely caps new public financing to a meagre €3.5 billion amount. The new government faces the unpalatable choice between surrender or bankruptcy.

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In Europe 4th February 2015

Draghi holds the winning cards

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Attempts to convince Tsipras and his colleagues to call off their open mutiny against the discipline imposed under the Greek bailout seem to be doomed. The Greeks bet on a strategy that forces European partners to cave in, should the prospect of huge turmoil materialise. After all, they are fully aware that Greece will prove unable to repay its debt unless it grows at 7% rate for the coming 30 years. 

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Spanish economy 3rd February 2015

Spain’s radicals Podemos seize the initiative

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Podemos, the brand-new radical movement, is capitalizing on corruption scandals and crisis side-effects to wreak havoc on traditional parties. The socialists are rapidly losing support while the former communists face utter implosion. Even the centre-right Partido Popular is losing its grip as Podemos promises to lure many of its disenchanted voters. Syriza’s victory is bolstering their chances of snatching a substantial representation in the upcoming regional and local poll and will likely hold a key position for the ensuing power-sharing. Much will depend on how wisely they use their strength to secure their ultimate goal of overhauling the current bi-partisan control in the general election due to take place at the end of the year.

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In Europe 28th January 2015

Striking a deal with Tsipras

MADRID | By JP Marin-Arrese | European governments are openly expressing dismay at the Greek election outcome. They have waited quite a long time to convey their congratulations wishes to Tsipras, the new elected Prime Minister. Berlin and Brussels stressed that debt restructuring was out of question while reminding him of  the need to keep pledges from former governments as a pre-condition for securing financial support. Yet, they should come to terms with him, the sooner the better, as a thoroughly deceived and frustrated European Council member can inflict damage to EU action. 

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In Europe 26th January 2015

Syriza’s victory: Greeks reject Europe’s recipe but they need Brussels’ support

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | The landslide victory snatched by leftwing Syriza plus the sizeable score recorded by parties opposed to the austerity measures represents a challenge to Europe’s orthodoxy in addressing real adjustment. Greek voters have voiced their rebuke to policies encompassing significant sacrifices but failing to redress a dismal economic record. Scrapping key elements of the welfare state and imposing harsh conditions on citizens has resulted in widespread poverty. In addition, the sentiment the troika was running the country has infuriated many of those going to the polls on Sunday. For all the popular support received, Tsipras faces a  formidable challenge ahead in delivering his election promises.

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In Europe 23rd January 2015

Draghi’s D-Day

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | The ECB unleashed a monetary onslaught yesterday aimed at breaking the stubborn deflationary pressures and sluggish growth have shown up to now. The massive artillery barrage mercilessly pounded enemy lines  with tons of fresh money, leaving defenders no other option than  unconditional surrender. With all ammunition and reserves engaged in this breathtaking D-Day, the ECB would find itself helpless should its gamble fail. As previous landings ended in disaster, the issue now is whether this assault will work as planned. 

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In Europe 21st January 2015

Draghi’s deal

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Mario Draghi has snatched green light for launching his coveted bond-buying scheme. In exchange, he has caved in to German pressure transferring the potential losses to the national banks. The ECB may seem to have lost its independence but striking such a deal was worth the price. 

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Markets 16th January 2015

Swiss franc shocks Forex

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | The Swiss National Bank decision to scrap the € 1.20 ceiling on its currency on Thursday caught investors by surprise. The ensuing steep appreciation, more than 30%, has also bewildered the Swiss monetary authorities. Shock waves hitting the Euro have sent its quote to fresh lows against the dollar, plunging the Forex into utter disarray. Furthermore, as short-term deposits will bear negative interest rates the key financial sector is bound to face rough times.   

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Markets 14th January 2015

EU Court’s green light for QE

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | In the OMT case brought before the EU Court of Justice by the German Constitutional watchdog, the Advocate General has delivered a positive opinion. As the Court usually follows such opinions, the last hurdle for implementing the planned QE has been lifted. Yet, the Advocate General sets a number of requirements that will curtail the ECB’s room of manoeuvre.