US Volatility: When Will You Return To The Market?
Nobody really knows why volatility has disappeared. In theory, there are more than enough reasons for the market to be nervous, and for investors to take advantage of this to obtain higher returns.
Nobody really knows why volatility has disappeared. In theory, there are more than enough reasons for the market to be nervous, and for investors to take advantage of this to obtain higher returns.
The FAANG, an acronym for Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, are the five companies really moving the US market. As a matter of fact, it is entirely dominated by Apple. And this firm’s expectations are what drives its share price.
The Laffer curve, named after Arthur Laffer, demonstrates, in a conceptual and educational way, that from a certain level of tax onwards, revenues fall because people don’t have any incentive to work. And the Supply Economy originated from this.
Despite the chaos of the Trump administration, prices have reached the Fed’s target. The announced “tapering” is complicated because if the central bank is not careful rates could shoot up more than necessary.
Wall Street’s market is celebrating eight years of uninterrupted rises. The PER of the SP500 was 10.9 on March 9th 2009, and it is now 19.8, with the historic average at 15.6.
Be passive! That seems to be the key for successfully investing these days. Put your money in an ETF that targets a basket of stocks, or, even better, into an indexed fund and forget about the rest. It is a market trend that has been blessed by no other than Warren Buffet. In his last encyclical (otherwise known as, simply, Berkshire’s letter to shareholders), the Oracle of Omaha tells his flock
It doesn’t matter what Trump says: the manufacturing companies are facing hard times. The best example of this is the Dow Jones. If the index was composed today of the same stocks as in 2004, it would not reach 13,000 points.
Donald Trump is clearly interfering with corporate liberty, directly criticising on Twitter every investment the big companies make. But the question is that he functions by and for the cameras and hasn’t taken in what the rule of law is. So you can’t ask him to have respect for regulations and institutions. He will be sworn in today.
Trump and the republicans are already considering a fiscal amnesty which would repatriate – with a tax rate of 10% – the 2.5 billion dollars US companies have outside the country.
In the United States, there is absolutely no discussion about the independent nature of organisms like Florida’s State Board of Administration – SBA. In fact, its director Ash Williams defends an increase in public spending, which is anathema to the Republicans with the exception of President-elect Donald Trump. He also affirms the US and many other industrialised economies need a responsible fiscal policy.