Articles by The Corner

About the Author

The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.
re opening corporate debt

The Vulnerabilities Of Corporate Debt In The Face Of A Historic Shock

Ricard Murillo Gili (via Caixabank Research ) | The paralysis of economic activity will lead to a fall in global GDP not seen since 1930. Are there latent financial fragilities that could amplify this decline? In a more demanding financial environment, the high levels of debt will be put to the test, its quality will deteriorate and mechanisms that amplify economic stress could be activated due to the interconnections that exist between different assets.


Mexico's elections to be held on 1 July

The Mexican Economy Shrank By 1.2% In Q1

Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | The Mexican economy shrank by 1.2% in Q1 on a quarterly basis, or 1.4% when compared with last´s year same period (not seasonally adjusted). The fallout in Q1 follows a series of 5 quarterly contractions over the last year and a half, further deepening the ongoing economic recession in Mexico. The coronavirus shock is mainly to blame for the Q1 contraction as external demand dropped sharply, with domestic activity only being affected in the last week of the quarter by the implementation of social distancing measures. Even so, quarterly GDP was dragged down to its worst performance since the financial crisis in 2009, with the March GDP contraction of 1.25% adding to a monthly decline of 0.59% in February and stalemate in January.


The EBA proposes modifying stress tests

European Banks: Asset Quality Ratios Are Not Proportional To The Extent Of Their Impairment Due To Covid19

Santander Corporate & Investment | Yesterday, the European Banking Authority (EBA) published a report with a preliminary assessment of the Covid-19 impact on the EU banking sector. The EBA flags up the fact that banks “entered the health crisis with strong solvency and liquidity reserves and managed the pressure on operational capacity by activating their contingency plans”. It also flags that “the crisis is expected to affect asset quality and therefore the future profitability of banks.


German business expectations

The First Part Of German GDP’s Drama In Detail

Martin Moryson (DWS ) | The data published yesterday by the Federal Statistical Office confirms the 2.2% decline in German economic output in the first quarter. This had already been calculated in a previous estimate. Combined with the last negative growth quarter of 2019, Germany is now officially in recession. However, Q1 is only the beginning. The real drama will only become evident in the figures for the Q2. Here we expect a 10 percent decline.


Ursula

A Game Changer For The Euro Awaits

Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | If the European Commission can get the EU-27 members on board with a project resembling the German-French initiative, markets could move significantly. Peripheral spreads can narrow notably from currently high levels and European stocks could deliver some rare outperformance. The euro could certainly recover from its depressed levels against the US dollar and other safe heaven currencies as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. This is particularly true given the notably bearish sentiment the single currency has recently attracted in futures markets.


pmi sector manufacturero marzo

‘Flash’ PMIs Showed That Economic Momentum Had Bottomed Out As Economies Reopen

David A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Preliminary purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) show that economic momentum has bottomed out from record-low levels in May, after corona-containment measures were eased. Nevertheless, levels are still in contraction territory. Even if PMIs recover to expansion in the next months, it will take some quarters until growth is restored at pre-crisis levels.


Spain tourism

Spanish Domestic Tourism To See A Revival End-June; Beginning July For Foreigner Visitors

Today Spain is taking another step towards the “new normal” with Madrid, which is the country’s economic driver, Barcelona and Castilla y León, the areas most affected by the pandemic, moving into Phase 1. The remaining 29 provinces, plus the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, are now entering Phase 2. Furthermore, the tourism season is expected to start at end-June for the Spanish population and at the beginning of July for foreigner visitors. The tourism industry accounts for over 12% of Spain’s GDP.


spain financing needs

Spain’s Financing Needs Rise To €130 Bn In 2020; Well Off The €32.5 Bn Initially Planned For This Year

Intermoney | What is clear is that the finances of countries like Spain are only sustainable thanks to the ECB’s very important support. And also thanks to the EU’s action which is much better than in the previous crisis. If the German and French Recovery Plan, based on subsidies, is successful, Spain’s need for financing will be lower; in other words, Community transfers would help keep net financing well below the 130 billion euros target.


new world order

Spotting The Winners In The New World Order

Emma-Lou Montgomery (Fidelity Investments) | The pandemic has slowed the global economy, it has also accelerated change in other areas that, in ‘normal’ times, would have probably taken months, if not years to come about and therein lies a source of opportunity for investors in particular. One obvious contender is retail. We are still very much in the midst of it all, but once the pandemic threat has passed sufficiently enough to allow the economy to fully reopen, the differential between high street and online retailers will become even more stark than before the pandemic.


The economic cold war between the US and China is here to stay

Losing Streak: US- China Trade Conflict

DWS | Trade wars are rarely good, and never easy to win. Instead, they tend to produce economic losses on all sides, causing both short-term pain and long-term damage. Recent trade conflicts between the United States and China may prove hard to reverse, harming U.S. consumers and businesses alike. As our “Chart of the Week” shows, Chinese exports to the United States have held up pretty well in value terms since both sides started to impose tariffs in July 2018.