Concerns about auto sector in 2017 are rising as US president-elect Donald Trump threats against US companies relocating their production to Mexico. Local players have capitulated to the President-elect’s dictates- Ford cancelled plans to build a new Mexican plant- which suggests that the industry’s spine is a weak one after all as it lobbies its way into the new balance of power.
The January update of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook”, published in October, confirms that Spain will recover this year all the GDP growth lost during the economic crisis, exceeding in 2017 for the first time the volume of growth in 2008.
Last week China’s trade data for December disappointed on the export side, with exports declining 6.1% y/y in USD terms. Imports were around expectations with a 3.1% rise.
A review on fixed income market cannot omit president-elect Trump’s first press conference of the year, although it contained little substance for investors trying to understand what the economic priorities of the new Administration will be.
J.L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The World Bank is predicting an acceleration in global growth rate for this year of up to 2.7%, after the lowest level of growth in the wake of the Crisis estimated last year. In general, the latest global economic data is fuelling optimism.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | The Cypriot experience makes it abundantly clear that Greece’s only chance of returning to any kind of normality can be found at the end of its bailout programme.
María Fernanda Tapia Cortés | Mexico starts 2017 with two trending topics: the announcement of new gasoline prices and protests inspired by the adjustment period in the form of a 20% price hike. While Mexicans are filled with outrage, moguls anticipate the potential earnings that this represents. The question is: Who will the energy reform benefit?
Indonesia has announced that it is going to ease up its export ban on nickel ore. It appears it is going to allow nickel miners to export as long as they dedicate at least 30 percent of their smelter capacity to processing low-grade ore, defined as below 1.7 percent nickel. For Spanish Acerinox, as well as the rest of the stainless steel sector, this news is very negative as it will put downwards pressure on nickel prices.
ECB’s bond-buying scheme creates some bout of scarcity on the market, but not necessarily resulting in lower yields. From their temporary lows after the Brexit shock, yields on European government bonds have rebounded in a material way. In the case of 10-year German Bunds, the increase was from -0.2% to +0.3%, while their French counterpart moved from 0.1% to 0.9%.
Spain’s National Statistics Institute said yesterday the number of purchase-sale transactions in the property market grew 17.3% in November to 33,806 from a year ago (and compared with a rise of 6.5% in October). That makes ten consecutive months of year-on-year rises. The data confirms the property market is recovering its role as a key economic driver.