UBP | The large majority of the NO points towards early elections, before the “normal” date of Q2- 2018; priority will be to rewrite the political law , to vote the 2017 budget and to continue on banks recapitalization. An interim government would probably come just in the few days after Renzi’s resignation.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | Political developments around the western world, from the victory for Brexit to Donald Trump being elected US president, have been a rude awakening for politicians, commentators and pollsters who did not see this shift in voter behaviour coming. So, we might want to consider if there is something going in Greece that we are failing to tap into.
Pablo Bejar | For the first time since 1982-83, the Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to be in recession for two consecutive years (2015-16). According to World Economic Outlook forecasts, growth is expected to be -0.6% this year following growth of -0.03% last year. The fall in commodity prices, lower global trade and continued weakness in advanced economies, combined with a set of internal factors in some of the larger regional economies, have driven growth lower.
Spanish midcap Telepizza has announced a Master Franchise Agreement with Momenin Investment Group (MIG) to open around 200 stores in Iran over the next 10 years.
OPEC has finally agreed to cut production by nearly 1.2 million bpd from January and for 6 months, representing about 4.5% of global output. Now we need to ask two questions: will the cartel countries respect the agreement? What will happen with the recent investment deficit in the sector? Will it still be profitable for the big producers to extract oil?
Julius Baer Research | The combination of a positive economic growth narrative, like the fiscal boost under President-elect Trump, and good economic data, creates a powerful positive US consensus. Self-limiting forces of a stronger US dollar and higher interest rates are slowly emerging.
Indra has launched a full bid for Tecnocom at 4,25 euros per share in cash and stock. Analysts see the move as a further step in Indra’s restructuring and is in line with its strategy for gaining critical mass.
José Benito | Since its stock market debut in April at 7,75 euros, Telepizza’s share price has dropped 39% compared with a 6.5% decline in the blue-chip Ibex 35 index over the same period. There are a lot of factors behind this relative negative performance, including the company’s overvaluation at the time of its listing or disappointment with its quarterly results.
UBS | It looks increasingly likely that at its meeting on 30 Nov next week OPEC will agree the production cut envisaged at its Sept extraordinary meeting. In Sept an OPEC-14 produc tion target range between 32.5 -33.0Mbd was agreed, designed to accelerate inventory draw -down and bring fwd re-balancing.
Francesco Saraceno | This post is nothing new. It is just a reminder for non European readers (or for distracted European readers), about the way things work in the EMU. The German Bundesbank President Weidmann violently attacked the European Commission for failing to enforce fiscal discipline within the Stability Pact.