UBS | It looks increasingly likely that at its meeting on 30 Nov next week OPEC will agree the production cut envisaged at its Sept extraordinary meeting. In Sept an OPEC-14 produc tion target range between 32.5 -33.0Mbd was agreed, designed to accelerate inventory draw -down and bring fwd re-balancing.
Francesco Saraceno | This post is nothing new. It is just a reminder for non European readers (or for distracted European readers), about the way things work in the EMU. The German Bundesbank President Weidmann violently attacked the European Commission for failing to enforce fiscal discipline within the Stability Pact.
UBP | Several major emerging markets economies are gaining speed. Indian and Indonesian GDP have posted successive gains and are likely to hold the current level of momentum given high government infrastructure spending. Russia is coming out of a recession; with the boost from interest rate cuts. In Brazil, leading indicators are turning less negativ.
UBS | Our 165k forecast for headline payrolls and 155k forecast for private payrolls are marginally faster than the October increases but marginally slower than earlier in the year.
Spain’s GDP grew 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, easing from the 3.4% registered in the previous one. But consumption slowed on a year-on-year basis from 3.2% to 2.8%, while gross fixed capital formation also showed a significant deceleration from 3.6% to 3.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier.
Initial figures relating to India’s demonetization indicate that some $80 billion of old bills have been handed into the banks to be exchanged for new ones. The objective of this exchange is to reduce money laundering and the black economy, which will increase the amount of tax raised and favour the banking sector’s penetration in the economy in the medium-term.
UBS | Interest rates available on cash have been pushed to record lows, as central banks have attempted to revive weak economies. Investors have sought returns elsewhere, but the prices of investment grade bonds, high yield bonds, and equities have now all been pushed up. The search for yield could take on new impetus in 2017, with inflation rising even more quickly than interest rates.
Spanish engineering company Talgo declared yesterday that it was the “virtual winner” of an order from Renfe (the state-owned passenger and freight rail transport operator) after presenting the best technical and economic bid.
Julius Baer Research | Consumer demand actually looks quite good in all markets, where the overall economic backdrop has improved, with less unemployment and rising real wages. The private consumption component of gross domestic product (GDP) varies between 60% and more than 70%, as is the case for the US, in advanced economies.
This coming Friday November 25th is celebrated throughout the world as Black Friday. The name originated in the United States in the 1960s and refers to the shopping day after Thanksgiving. The first estimates on pre-Christmas sales (Black Friday and Cyber Monday) point to a record season this year.