MADRID | The Corner | The Japanese economy unexpectedly entered recession in the third quarter, just after the GDP decreased by an annualised pace of 1.6 per cent, versus forecasts that it would rebound by 2.2 per cent. Japan contracted by 0.4% in the 3Q14, leaving the country in a technical recession, which drove the Nikkei to near 3% losses and raised serious questions about the planned sales tax hike next year.
By UBS analysts | As the US economic recovery completes its fifth year, direct policy stimulus is no longer being applied, but the economy is poised to move ahead on its own self-generating momentum. Real GDP growth is expected at 2.9% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Less slack in the labor market along with accelerating labor demand should soon be accompanied by somewhat faster wage gains to boost household incomes, confidence and spending. A rising industrial capacity utilization rate should help trigger more sustained gains in capex. And a falling residential rental vacancy rate should further stimulate rents and residential construction.
BEIJING | By Michael Gavin (Barclays) | There are many reasons to be interested in the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Here, we focus on the potential implications for advanced manufacturing economies. They are not the ones with the most to lose in a slowdown; that distinction very likely belongs to commodity exporters. But China’s systemic significance is such that no economy is likely to remain utterly unscathed by a cyclical event there. The question is how scathed major economies will be, and the answer is of some considerable interest for investors, if only because they comprise such a large share of the world’s financial assets.
By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | A view that Chinese growth must slow because of experiences elsewhere may be ignoring the country’s uniqueness and technological advances.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | This weekend´s G20 summit in Brisbane takes place against the backdrop of growing economic uncertainty. With the Eurozone on the verge of deflation, leaders are likely to focus on the ECB´s next move, as the world –and financials– await some tangible prospect of growth outlook. Corporate taxation –brought on the table again after the Luxleaks scandal– and climate change also likely to feature, despite the claims of host Australia.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | The US continues to come top of the class in economic terms which, combined with the effect of central bank policy divergence, is clearly driving global flows. Country- specific equity ETF flows in October show that the US saw by far the largest inflows last month followed by the UK, Korea and Australia. Europe was once again a laggard in both economic terms and in flows: Germany, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, saw net outflows in October due to these growth concerns. Within BRIC, China saw the largest outflow since April last year as growth concerns continue to persist but Brazil, India and Mexico saw inflows.
By Sreekala Kochugovindan, Anando Maitra (Barclays) | History highlights the importance of the business cycle in determining the effect of rising rates on asset returns, a topic we discussed in depth in Scenarios for a shifting bond landscape. We examined US data since 1925 and selected episodes where US Treasuries sold off by more than 5% in one year. The results were pretty mixed, with equity returns ranging between plus and minus 50% and providing no consistent pattern.
BEIJING | By Li Junjie via Caixin | Those who study the overseas investments of Chinese enterprises are starting to get jitters. Japanese companies went on a foreign real estate buying spree in the 1980s that ended in serious losses, and the question now is whether China will repeat the same mistake.
ATHENS | By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | The reprofiling of Greece’s sovereign obligations makes any future debt restructuring an exercise that would almost entirely impact the official sector of Greece’s international creditors. Among these creditors, European institutions such as the ECB, the EFSF and eurozone member states would be affected most prominently.
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | The Spanish labour market is bearing it´s teeth towards temporary workers by penalising them excessively. That is the verdict of the European Commission, who highlight concerns in a recent report titled “Wage Adjustment in Spain: slow, inefficient and unfair?” published by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.