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Companies, Markets, Spanish economy 19th November 2022

Downward revisions in Europe have only just begun; usually takes 7-8 months until they touch bottom

Morgan Stanley | Q3’22 results have been very similar to those of Q2’22 and Q1’22, substantially better-than-expected in terms of revenues and also strong in terms of profits, although to a lesser degree. There was a fairly negative skew in publications, with those stocks which published better-than-expected figures rising very little, while those which presented worse numbers fell sharply. Financials and energy were the two sectors which published better figures,…

Repsol

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 18th November 2022

S&P hikes Repsol rating to BBB+ from BBB after company strengthens balance sheet amid high raw material prices

Renta 4 | S&P has raised its rating on Repsol from BBB to BBB+, while maintaining its A-2 in the short-term, with a stable outlook. The ratings agency has based its move on a backdrop of high raw material prices, divestments and Repsol’s prudent financial policies to strengthen its balance sheet and improve credit measures. S&P flags that the market situation will favourably affect the company throughout the cycle. This…

Heathrow Ferrovial

Companies, European economy, Ibex 17th November 2022

Ferrovial eyes participation in new Warsaw airport, a project valued at €8 B

Bankinter | Ferrovial is interested in participating in the development of the new airport in Warsaw, which will be located between the Polish capital and the city of Lodz. The project is valued at around 8 billion euros and the Spanish firm has put itself forward to invest in it, along with other partners. Analyst team’s view: Good news for Ferrovial. The operation would make strategic sense, as it would…

iberdrolaTC

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 17th November 2022

Iberdrola, attractive growth and high visibility; Buy (T.P. 12,50 vs 11,90 euros/share)

Bankinter | Upward revision to targets in the Strategic Plan 2025. Attractive growth and strong visibility in results. Iberdrola has revised upward the objectives in its Strategic Plan 2025. It now expects EBITDA in 2025 of 16.5-17.0 billion euros vs 15 billion previously, and NAP of 5.2-5.4 billion euros vs 5 billion previously. Average annual growth rate in EBITDA and NA`P in the period 2022-2025 will be between 8% and…

Private debt

Companies, Markets, Spanish economy 16th November 2022

Gross issues could grow 8% in 2023 to €830 B; with corporate issues rising 20%, banks up 1%

Santander Corporate & Investment | The rally in the secondary market will boost the primary market. This is a phenomenon which is not new. There are clear examples in 2009, 2012, 2019 and the second half of 2020, where the improvement in the markets translated into increases in gross issues of 115%, 78%, 37% and 17% respectively. We believe this pattern could be repeated in 2023, above all during a…

Amadeus

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 15th November 2022

Downward revision in Amadeus to take into account a more complicated macro backdrop; Hold (T.P. 58,5 vs 63,50 euros/share)

Renta 4 | Q3 figures have consolidated the trend towards a recovery of 2019 levels. The decline in revenues is close to one digit: -13% vs Q3’19 (-17% in Q2), EBITDA: -20%, also improves, +4pp vs Q2 (ex German government aid). That said, this recovery has been held back by disruptions in European airports and travel restrictions in Asia. Recovery continues in Q4, at a slow pace Reservations show a…

Aena

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 15th November 2022

With almost 24 M trips, Aena’s air traffic figures in October were down just 3% on 2019

Intermoney | Aena (Hold, T.P. 140 euros/share) announced is traffic figures for October on Friday. The company managed almost 24 million trips, 3% less than the same month in 2019. Last month, the dichotomy between the tourist airports continued. Palma (+5%) and Lanzarote (+11%)’s figures were well above pre-pandemic levels, while Barajas and El Prat airports’ figures are still on average 10% below those levels. In the year to date,…

Colonial

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 14th November 2022

The Socimis are already trading at big discounts of 55%-65% to NAV due to rate hikes: BUY Colonial

Bankinter |The Spanish Socimis are facing a more than foreseeable downward adjustment to the value of their assets (GAV), in light of the hike in interest rates in the last few months and the potential recession. This decrease in the valuation of their portfolios will have an impact on accounting profit and on leverage, which could already be reflected in certain areas at end-year. Our analyst team’s view: Negative news,…

Arcelor Mittal

Companies, European economy, Ibex 14th November 2022

Problems related to demand worsen for ArcelorMittal due to a persistent de-stocking in Europe

Morgan Stanley | Arcelor’s conference call focused on the outlook for the business, on Q4 results, on the dynamics of the working capital and returns on capital. Our economist Alain Gabriel highlights the following issues: The problems surrounding demand are worsening due to a persistent de-stocking in Europe, which Alain expects to further exacerbate in Q4.EBITDA 4Q: fewer deliveries and lower prices are offset (partly) by lower variable costs. Energy coverage…

Iberdrola

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 14th November 2022

Iberdrola estimates €47 billion investments to 2025; but 57% will be earmarked for networks, 38% for renewables vs previous plan

Renta 4 | Against the current backdrop of uncertainty, Iberdrola has decided to make a small a shift in its investments’ strategy, giving increased priority to investment in networks vs renewables, with respect to the firm’s previous plan. In the period 2023-2025, it estimates investing 47 billion euros (84% for growth). This is very similar to the investments forecast in the previous plan, although 57% will be earmarked for networks…