A further slowdown in lending to the private sector in May, already contracting in the peripheral countries. The ECB published yesterday the data on lending to the private sector in the Eurozone, where it confirms the progressive slowdown in bank lending to +2.7% year.on.year in May vs. +3.5% in April and a peak of +6.5% in September last year, so that it is already slightly below its pre-pandemic levels of…
Link Securities | According to elEconomista.es on Tuesday, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said in her opening speech at the central bank forum in Sintra (Portugal) that the ECB will probably not be able to declare the end of its historic cycle of interest rate hikes any time soon. In that sense, Lagarde said that it is unlikely that in the near future the central…
The German 2s10s curve has inverted to two-decade highs, surpassing the levels seen in March. Macro continues to slow and Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts lower their growth forecasts for Europe with the German IFO contracting, for the second consecutive month more than expected by both consensus and Morgan Stanley… and in line with last Friday’s disappointing European PMIs. The bad data is again concentrated in the deterioration of the expectations…
Banc Sabadell| Talgo (TLGO) announced on Friday at the opening that the Danish parliament has approved the extension of the contract with DSB for the supply of eight additional intercity Talgo 230 trainsets (and fleet parts for their maintenance) for a sum of €184 million (~4% of the portfolio including the DB contract and Egypt). Assessment: Positive news although of little impact given that the contract was already announced and…
The CEO of IAG, Luis Gallego, said on Monday that the integration of the Portuguese TAP into the holding company “could be an opportunity” depending on the conditions established by the Portuguese government for its privatisation. Gallego pointed out that it could benefit the group with the connections that TAP has with Brazil and parts of Africa, where IAG currently has no presence. According to Gallego, the incorporation of new…
Santander Corporate & Investment: This Wednesday European banks are to repay €477mm of TLTROs which will reduce excess liquidity in the system materially and funding via TLTROs to only around €600mm at a delicate time of acceleration of the QT programme from 1 July and with market sentiment further dampened after the ECB/FOMC and the flash PMIs plunge on Friday. For Italian banks, a geography where the gap excess liquidity…
Banca March: May’s inflation data has precipitated a sharp move in UK official rate expectations that put the UK’s terminal rate at 6% and assigns a 40% probability that the Bank of England would launch a 50bp “jumbo” hike at Thursday’s meeting, which would raise official rates to 5%. The concern stems from the rise in core inflation to 7.1% and the eleventh consecutive upward surprise in headline inflation to…
Morgan Stanley| Management hosted a Business Update on Wednesday during the Paris Air Show, focusing on supply chains and production ramp-up. Specifically, Ross Law (analyst) estimates that during the event, the company has received orders for 846 aircraft, which according to the Airbus CEO, brings the total order backlog to 8,000 units, equivalent to 10 years of production at the current rate. With this, Ross highlights that the current strong…
Banca March: The European Union is about to confirm that it is raising its renewable energy consumption target from 22% to 42.5% by 2030, a commitment that is expected to boost investment in clean generation sources. The agreement, which updates the current legal target of 32%, is based on a political negotiation concluded in the spring and although it is not yet final, as it will also have to be…
Banca March: The ECB followed the script and at Thursday’s meeting increased the price of money once again, raising all its interest rates by 25 b.p., bringing the benchmark rate to 4% and the deposit rate to 3.5%. However, the most relevant aspect was economic expectations and clues as to the monetary authority’s future moves. In these sections, it should be noted that the ECB lowered its GDP growth forecasts…