JP Marín-Arrese | Those betting Brexit would take a heavy toll on Britain, discover much to their surprise that the EU stands as the first collateral casualty. The vacuum left in the budget by the UK departure has fuelled bitter acrimony between the Member States, especially in those receiving large amounts of Community money, like Spain. Its PM Sánchez has described the proposal tabled by the Council Chair as deeply disappointing.
The world has changed a lot because China has changed a lot. China’s share of global GDP has risen from a negligible 2% in 1990 to 15.9%. Meanwhile, the other powers have fallen in that period: Japan, from 14 to 5.8%; Europe, from 35% to 21.9%; and the USA, from 27% to 23.9%, according to Weltbank data. So hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany are now dependent on China. And all over the world, because China today accounts for 1/3 of world growth.
Julius Baer | Although the UK will most likely officially exit the EU tomorrow, this exit will mostly be formal. The withdrawal agreement only defines the terms of divorce, limiting immediate disruptions, but says little about the future trade relationship between the UK and EU. The so-called ‘Political Declaration’, a 26- page sketch of the future trade relationship alongside the with- drawal agreement, but not legally binding, defines a so-called ‘transition’ or ‘implementation’ period from the date of Brexit until the end of 2020.
Manuel Moreno Capa | As soon as Boris Johnson swept to victory in the UK general election of last December 12, he made two decisions that have not been welcomed by the City of London: the first, to reduce the transitional period of Brexit to one year (how naive he is if he thinks his tough stance will soften the positions already taken by Brussels); the second, to appoint a new Governor of the Bank of England not much liked by the markets.
Jean-François Jolivalt (La Française AM) | The more than 40 days of protests and transport strikes in France against the pension reform proposed by the French Government is an unprecedented event in the recent history of France. Strikes are undoubtedly a burden on consumer confidence. However, the population has adapted to the situation thanks to electronic commerce, distance work, carpooling and car sharing, which are all services or alternatives that are now widely accepted and available.
Yannis Mouzakis (Macropolis) | In a recent opinion poll by MRB, those surveyed were asked who they would like to see as next Greek President if the incumbent, Prokopis Pavlopoulos is not awarded a second term. Twenty-six percent said they would like to see former prime minister Kostas Karamanlis be appointed Greece’s new head of state.
Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Leftist Zoran Milanovic, a former Prime Minister, has been elected President of Croatia, beating closely right-wing incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Croatia, which was the last country to join the European Union back in 2013, has just assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU for the first time in its history.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) | Leaving behind the crisis has also led to somewhat of a rehabilitation in the relationship between Greeks and Europe’s institutions. According to the latest Eurobarometer, whereas trust in the Greek government and Parliament ranges between 20 and 25 percent, faith in the European Parliament stands at 47 percent, falling to 34 percent for the European Commission. Also, 60 percent of Greeks think the euro is good for their country.
The chances of “getting Brexit done” reasonably quickly and smoothly have never been better.
Allianz GI / Victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party in the UK general election is likely to be welcomed by markets and potentially boosts prospects for the UK economy. It doesn’t, however, end the Brexit uncertainty overnight – and the UK continues to be vulnerable to a late-cycle global environment.