In Europe

boris jonhson

The Brexiteers may regret supporting Boris as PM

Shaun Riordan | Boris Johnson will fulfill his life-long ambition of becoming Prime Minister this afternoon. The pro-Europeans within his own Conservative Party have postponed their rebellion until after the summer. Mrs May will therefore be able to recommend Johnson to the Queen as the political leader best placed to secure a majority in the House of Commons, and therefore best able to form a new Government. But that majority is wafer thin. Even with the support of the N Ireland Unionists, his overall majority is only three. That is likely to be reduced to two following an upcoming by-election. Up to twenty Conservative MPs have indicated they could be ready to bring down the Government to avoid a no deal Brexit.


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Generalised fall in all European TV companies: Netflix pressure will last

The impact of Netflix and Amazon on terrestrial TV in Europe has been remarkable. The worst countries are Spain (-7%), the UK (-6%) and France (-5%). Morgan Stanley decided to cut their forecasts and objective prices for European broadcasters. The principal cut is Prosieben, for which they see a downside potential of 20%.


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The ECB poised to loosen money conditions

JP Marín-Arrese | Christine Lagarde’s nomination ensures the ECB will fully preserve Draghi’s heritage. It will certainly deliver a substantive loosening in monetary policy over the coming months. Everyone expects the first move to materialise this week, probably a rate cut. Anything short of a clear message in the coming press conference would deeply disappoint the markets. Whatever happens next Thursday, more robust action will materialise before the year close.






Spanish banks credit lending

Eurozone credit to companies and households increases +0.3%

Credit statistics for Eurozone residents elaborated by the ECB for May shows an increase in the balance for companies of households of +0.3% (+35.775 Bn€), in line with the monthly increases so far this year and the same as the increase in May 2018, according to Bankia Estudios.



Portuguese real estate has recovered remarkablyrecovery.

Real estate sector: Monetary policy and bond IRR could boost investment flows

Morgan Stanley | As we indicated in our last real estate strategy report, this has been the worst sector in Europe in 2Q19 (oversold and with a relative performance of 3.5sd below its 12MA). This has been mainly motivated by concerns about the proposal to freeze rental prices in the city of Berlin (and its possible spread to other cities in the country) as well as the uncertainty regarding Brexit.