Spain’s banks currently have on their books something close to 213 billion euros in property risks (assets and loans). Is that a lot or not? Judging by the recent reports from the Bank of Spain or Moody’s, the total is rather worrying: and we are not talking about small change but about the fact that our lenders still have an amount of property on their balance sheets equivalent to 20% of GDP.
A recent European Commission report on innovation indicators highlights that Spain is the third country, along with Lithuania, which has fallen behind the most in matters of innovation – after Romania and Hungary. Since the start of the crisis in 2008, Spain has lost an average of 0.8% annually in R&D output.
It’s good news for Spain’s economic recovery. The number of unemployed people registered with Spain’s public employment services dropped by 83,993, or 2.2%, in July from June to 3.683.061 million, the lowest level since August 2009. It was also the biggest fall in the month of July since 1997.
Spain’s GDP growth rate in the first half of this year has been solid. In the second quarter, GDP expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter nearly in line with the 0.8% rise in the first quarter, translating into a 3.2% year-on-year increase. So overall, the balance for the first half of 2016 has been favourable. And the strong performance over this period means that it is very likely GDP growth will be close to 3% for the full-year. But there are downward risks for 2017.
Julius Baer Research | We share the view of Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, that his ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance alone cannot push the eurozone economy out of its current weakness but needs to be complemented with fiscal impulses.
Summer’s here and so are seasonal contracts. The latest employment survey showed the jobless rate in Spain went down to 20% in Q2, its lowest level since the summer of 2010. And yet employment is still a heavy burden for Spaniards, Greece being the only EU country with a higher rate.
There has been an increasing reduction in the pricing of corporate loans in Spain. Currently loan pricing is at 2010 lows, according to the Bank of Spain’s May bulletin.
Last week the Council decided that Spain and Portugal’s recent efforts to reduce deficit were not enough. This lead to the two countries being fined, the first time this happens since the inception of the euro.
The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).