Spanish Banks’ Loan Pricing Continues To Fall
There has been an increasing reduction in the pricing of corporate loans in Spain. Currently loan pricing is at 2010 lows, according to the Bank of Spain’s May bulletin.
There has been an increasing reduction in the pricing of corporate loans in Spain. Currently loan pricing is at 2010 lows, according to the Bank of Spain’s May bulletin.
Last week the Council decided that Spain and Portugal’s recent efforts to reduce deficit were not enough. This lead to the two countries being fined, the first time this happens since the inception of the euro.
The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).
Politicians’ promises are always idle talk. This makes it difficult to understand why some analysts showed their surprise when the Spanish government announced a €6 Bn rise in corporate taxes in order to meet Brussels goals just two weeks after general elections. Leaving aside strictly electoral reasons, Mariano Rajoy’s government had solid arguments to hike the levy to firms: corporate taxes are the only ones which have not returned to 2007 levels, gains being reduced by half.
The Social Security’s pensions fund is emptying. And this is causing huge alarm amongst current and future pensioners who believe, incorrectly, that “there’s going to be no money left and one day they’ll tell us that there is no monthly payment.”
The European Court of Justice advocate general made public on Wednesday a detailed opinion from an advisers group on so-called floor clauses in Spanish mortgage contracts. This recommendation suggests the court should apply retroactively a “temporal limit” on the amounts banks will have to reimburse borrowers. Floor clauses were already declared unfair by Spanish Supreme Court in 2013 May.
While Spain’s private shipyards are doing really well, the state-owned shipyards are not capable of recovering the levels of competitiveness which would pull them out of losses and allow them to compete in the international markets. One relevant example of this was their inability to take on the job of building the lock-gates for the Panal Canal extension.
In the next quarter and the following one, we will obviously see an uptick in growth because of the tourist season. But after that, we will see a more marked slowdown, for a variety of reasons, with the first one being the impact of Brexit. But if this is going to lead to recession, I don’t know. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I don’t rule it out.
According to forecasts from The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Spain’s labour market will be amongst the top performers in the “Club of the rich countries,” registering the biggest advance in terms of employment in 2016 and overcoming the negative trend seen during the crisis. The international institution warns that a new recession could take Spain by surprise without having recovered all the jobs lost in the crisis.
The number of unemployed people registered with Spain’s Employment Office fell by 124,349 in June from May to 3.767.054. The decline in relative terms was 3.2% and is the second largest in historical series, only beaten by the fall recorded in June 2013.