CaixaBank Research | The Spanish economy has spent four consecutive years growing above the Eurozone average. At the same time, the savings rate has fallen to historic lows. Although this would seem to suggest that households have limited room to manoeuvre in their consumption decisions if the economic context worsens, it is still too soon to draw this conclusion.
Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
Composite and Services PMI, which is elaborated by the consultancy IHS Marlon, exceeded expectations for Spain. The PMI for services rose from 54.5 in February to 56.8 in March compared to the expected 55.
Bankia Estudios | Although the Spanish economy continued generating financing capacity, it finds itself on a downward trend, burdened by the deterioration of the external environment, so that it closed last year at post 2014 lows (1.5% of GDP). The correction of the public deficit has been amply compensated for by the deterioration in the financial position of the private sector, above all of households which, with savings rate at historical lows, have registered financing needs for for the second consecutive year.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | John De Zulueta, President of the Circle of Businessmen, believes that Spanish society should aspire to reduce unemployment to 5%, and argues that this would liberate more than €26 billion for savings and investment, public or private, in short for a greater prosperity.
Bankinter | The ECB has called attention to the evolution of Spain’s fiscal deficit in its Annual Report for 2018, published this week. The impact on the country’s risk premium, currently around 120 b.p. (IRR 1.12%/1.14%), will probably be negative.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.
Emilio José González González via The Conversation | How many immigrants does Spain need to be able to pay the pensions? To put a figure is easy. The IMF, in an analysis entitled Challenges Beyond Financial Sustainability, concludes that 5.5 million immigrants will be needed between now and 2050, equivalent to 21% of the current population.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the increases in FDI result from Spain´s continued above Eurozone average economic growth. At the same time, the figures for Catalonia continued to decline (-12% in the same period).