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Spanish economy

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Spanish economy 26th October 2014

Spanish banks pass most stringent stress tests to date with no capital shortfalls

MADRID | The Corner | The ECB did not find any capital shortfall in the Spanish banks, which all passed the highly awaited central bank’s stress tests. Results made public on Sunday reveal that 25 European lenders failed while the other 105 succeeded. Among the big fish only the Italian Monte dei Paschi, the world’s oldest, appears in the failure list. Those 25 European entities will have to face €24.6 billion capital shortfall, but considering 13 of them have already issued part ot these capital needs, they will only reach €9 billion.

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Spanish economy 24th October 2014

Spain: good labour market performance supports growth

LONDON | By Antonio García Pascual at Barclays | The most recent labour market data have been improving at a faster pace than we had envisaged, including results for the Q3 14 Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS). The EAPS shows that employment increased by 151k in Q3 (private sector +155k; public sector -4k). The number of unemployed fell by 195k, standing at 5.4mn. The unemployment rate stood at 23.7% (24.1% sa), compared to 24.5% in Q2 (24.7% sa). The participation rate continues to fall, to 59.4% (sa), albeit at a moderate pace – this is also consistent with ongoing net migration outflows. 

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Spanish economy 24th October 2014

Spanish banks: The sun is back but not for everyone yet

ZURICH | By Ignacio Sanz at UBS | GDP expectations continue to improve, NPLs are starting to come down although we do not expect write-backs for any bank, capital looks comfortable ahead of AQR and banks show a healthy funding while underwriting new deposits at c0.5-0.7%. The market knows all that with banks trading north of 1x NAV15e although for retail banks making more than 10% ROE with 0% rates is challenging.

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Spanish economy 17th October 2014

Bank of Spain may adopt Euribor Plus index

MADRID | The Corner | The BdE is working on the possibility of establishing a new reference index known as Euribor Plus. The main characteristic would be the form of calculation, which would only take into account prices (interest rates) for transactions instead of reference prices announced by financial institutions.

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Spanish economy 7th October 2014

It’s IPO fiesta time in Spain!

MADRID | The Corner | In 2014, the Spanish stock market could register the largest number of IPOs since 1989 with a total of 17 operations, according to the Spanish Stock Exchange (BME). Up to present, eleven firms have won approval for initial public offerings with capital flows amounting to €4.8 billion.

 

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Spanish economy 3rd October 2014

If employment stalls, can GDP grow?

MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | There is a consensus amongst  Spanish economists, who are forecasting a growth in GDP of 1.3% in 2014 and 2% in 2015. The Government shares this view and, on this basis, has already outlined the draft of next year’s budget. It believes that the “recovery and increased employment” phase is already under way, and in fact, that Spain is showing better indexes than the Euro zone average.

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Spanish economy 2nd October 2014

2014 Spain’s fiscal adjustment on target; 2015 more challenging

(By Barclays) | The Spanish government presented the details of the 2015 draft fiscal budget on Wednesday and the updated macroeconomic outlook underpinning it. There are few changes on the fiscal targets and projections, although the government now expects the economy to grow this year by 1.3% and next by 2% (Barclays: 1.2% and 1.8%). The budget minister in the press conference saw very little risk of the sovereign meeting the deficit target of 5.5% of GDP this year. 

The fear of an accident which is beginning to dominate Spanish society

Spanish economy 1st October 2014

The independence of Catalonia and the future of Spain- reading the small print

MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | The debate about the independence of Catalonia is at the centre of Spain’s political concerns. The Catalan Government and the parties supporting it -covering a broad spectrum, from the centre to the extreme left- have taken every step to call the referendum (called query) that would open the door to independence. The Spanish authorities have taken steps to prevent a consultation-referendum which it says contravenes the text and spirit of the 1978 Spanish Constitution.