In the World

Trump Aranceles

24 US states sue administration in first legal challenge to newly imposed 10% global tariffs

Link Securities | Reuters reported on Friday that a group of 24 US states have sued the US administration in the first legal challenge to its newly imposed 10% global tariffs. The states argue that President Trump cannot circumvent the Supreme Court (SC) ruling that invalidated most of his previous tariffs on imported goods by citing new legal authority. The Democrat-led states, including New York, California and Oregon, argue that…


newyork services

Mixed data in US service indicators: February PMI falls to 10-month low of 51.7 points, ISM rises to 56.1 from 53.8 previously

Link Securities | The US services sector purchasing managers’ index, the services PMI compiled by S&P Global, fell in its final February reading to 51.7 points (a 10-month low) from 52.3 points in January, falling below the 52.3 points in its preliminary reading, which was what FactSet consensus analysts had expected. Any reading above 50 points suggests expansion of activity relative to the previous month, and below that level, contraction….


china yuan mirada

Positive reading from China’s private activity register, although official figures show slight deterioration

Bankinter | Positive activity data in February, deepening in the expansion zone (>50). RatingDog Composite PMI: 51.6 against 51.3 previously; RatingDog Services PMI: 56.7 against 52.3 expected and 52.3 previously. RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 52.1 against 50.1 expected and 50.3 previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: Positive reading of the private activity register (RatingDog), although it contrasts with the official figures also released on Wednesday, which show a slight deterioration: Manufacturing PMI…


SP500 nuevo

Since 1991, conflicts between US and Middle Eastern countries have been bullish for three months (and beyond) for S&P 500

Renta 4 | The main US indices are starting the week in a very similar vein to the last three months, mired, especially the S&P 500, in a tedious sideways range, with support at 6,780 points and resistance at 7,000 points. The two major support levels for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 this year can be clearly seen in the chart below, with November’s lows of 6,520 points as…


OPEC post mortem

OPEC+ to increase oil production by 206,000 bpd from April

Bankinter | OPEC+ to increase oil production by +206,000 bpd from April. The increase is justified by the fact that the global economic outlook is stable and oil reserves are low. Bankinter analysis team’s view: This decision has been taken by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. It is part of the objective of gradually introducing into the market the 1.65 Mb/d of voluntary cuts…


EEUU consumidores conference board

US consumer confidence rises 2.2 points in January to 91.2, but remains below November 2024 figure of 112.8

Singular Bank | In February, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in the US rose 2.2 points to 91.2 points following an upward revision of January’s figure (89.0 points). This reading significantly exceeded market consensus estimates (87.4 points), although it remains well below the four-year high of 112.8 reached in November 2024. At the same time, the present situation index rose 6.3 points to 120.0 points and the expectations index…


Trump Aranceles

US Reaches Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Deficit in 2025, the Year of Tariffs

Pyden&Rygel | Data released last week shows that the US nominal goods trade deficit widened to $1.2 trillion in 2025, the highest level since 1960. This occurred despite the most significant tariff tightening in decades, which had the explicit goal of narrowing that very gap. How can this contradiction be explained? The answer lies in the reorganization of supply chains. Importers took advantage of differences in tariff rates between countries,…


eeuucbeconomia11

US inflation approaching 3%, economy slowing to 1.4% quarterly from 4.4% previously, discouraging Fed from lowering rates

Bankinter | The first reading of Q4 2025 GDP in the US shows growth moderating more than expected to 1.4% annualised quarterly against 2.8% expected and 4.4% previously. However, in year-on-year terms, the decline is milder: 2.2% against 2.3% previously, with consumption at 2.2% against 2.6% previously. The negative aspect comes from the GDP price deflator, which rose to 3.3% year-on-year against 3.0% previously. The December Private Consumption Deflator rose…


containersTC

Trump announces global tariff of 15%, to take effect almost immediately,’ EU demands he abide by trade terms signed in 2025

Link Securities | US President Donald Trump announced on Friday the signing of an executive order that would impose a 10% global tariff on all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he changed his mind and said he would raise it to 15%. The decision came after it was revealed that the Supreme Court had ruled that his use of the International Emergency…


EEUU industria

Empire Manufacturing indicates that manufacturing activity in New York continues to expand

Bankinter | Empire Manufacturing (February): 7.1 versus 6.2 expected versus 7.7 previous. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The indicator shows that manufacturing activity in NY continues to expand moderately. New Orders remained positive (5.8), reflecting continued growth in demand, albeit at a moderate pace. Shipments weakened and fell to -1.0, signalling a stabilisation after the strength of the previous month (16.3). In the labour market, the Employment Index improved to positive…