In the World

eeuu inflacion precios 1

US CPI surprises in January with overall rate moderating to 2.4% and core of 2.5%

Bankinter | The CPI surprised on the upside in January. The headline rate moderated more than expected to 2.4% (-0.3pp), while the core rate of 2.5% (-0.1pp) was in line with expectations. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The good performance of inflation allows for a dovish/loose monetary policy by the Fed, whose reference rate is currently in the 3.50% / 3.75% range. Despite this, the strength of recent labour market data…



Cosco

US import prices stagnate at 0.0% in 2025, while export prices grow 3.1%

Link Securities | The Department of Labour reported yesterday that import prices rose 0.1% in December compared to November, a reading that was in line with analysts’ consensus forecasts. In December, the increase in non-fuel goods prices offset the decline in energy prices. Excluding fuels, import prices rose 0.2% in December, while non-oil prices rose 0.4%. Price increases were observed in several categories, including food, feed and beverages (0.5%), industrial…


eeuu comprasnavidad

US retail sales register 0.0% in December compared to 0.6% in previous month

Intermoney | Retail sales stagnated in December, compared to the 0.4% increase we could have expected and the 0.6% in November. It should be noted that at the start of the Christmas season, sales were brought forward to take advantage of some of the discounts at the end of November, which we believe led to greater weakness in the last month of the year. Monthly sales increased in only five…


China inflacion precios

Deflationary pressure increases in January in China, CPI moderates to 0.2% year-on-year against 0.8% previously

Bankinter | The CPI in China moderates to 0.2% year-on-year against 0.4% expected and 0.8% previously, while Industrial Prices accelerated to negative 1.4% against -1.5% expected and -1.9% previously. Analysis team’s view: Negative impact. Inflation moderates more than expected, although it is distorted by a base effect comparing January 2025, when Chinese New Year was celebrated, versus January 2026, when there was no such holiday as this year it begins…


donald trump

Trump believes Kevin Warsh can boost country’s economy to 15% growth rate

CdM | US President Donald Trump believes that Kevin Warsh, his nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), can boost the country’s economy to grow at a rate of 15%. He made this statement in an interview on Fox Business, in which he made it clear that if Warsh ‘does the job he is capable of doing,’ the US ‘can grow at 15%, I think even more.’ ‘I think…


import export

US ports handle 6.8% less container imports in January than last year

Norbolsa | According to a report published by a technology systems provider, US ports handled 6.8% less container imports in January than last year. The figures were significantly impacted by the contraction in imports from China (-22.7%) and distorted by frontloading in the accumulation of business inventories in the face of the threat of tariffs. Frontloading is expected to continue distorting the figures during the first half of 2026.


Sanae Takaichi

Japan’s Takaichi landslide victory puts us back positive for stocks and negative for Japanese bonds

Alicia Gª Herrero (Natixis) | At the Lower House election on February 8th, Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a historical victory with 316 seats, which brings her well above the absolute majority. With the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) gaining 36 seats, the LDP-led ruling coalition obtained 75% of total seats at the Lower House. These results should bring higher political stability, as the LDP was in coalition before the…


FedTC

Trump confirms Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell’s successor at helm of Fed

Renta 4 | We have finally received confirmation from Trump that Kevin Warsh will replace Powell at the helm of the Fed starting next May, something that the market had already been anticipating since Thursday afternoon. For his confirmation, approval by the Senate Banking Committee and then by the Senate itself is required. We recall that Republican Tillis, of the Banking Committee, said he would not approve any candidate until…


Fed Enero 2025

Fed keeps benchmark rates at 3.50–3.75% and appears to be entering ‘wait and see’ mode

Bankinter | The Fed kept its benchmark interest rates (Fed Funds) in the 3.50%/3.75% range, in line with expectations. They will let ‘the data speak for itself’. The decision was not unanimous, with two votes in favour of cutting -25bp (Miran and Waller). Powell highlighted the improvement in growth expectations to ‘solid’ from “moderate” in his previous statement in December and, with regard to the unemployment rate, showed ‘signs of…