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US Reaches Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Deficit in 2025, the Year of Tariffs

Pyden&Rygel | Data released last week shows that the US nominal goods trade deficit widened to $1.2 trillion in 2025, the highest level since 1960. This occurred despite the most significant tariff tightening in decades, which had the explicit goal of narrowing that very gap. How can this contradiction be explained? The answer lies in the reorganization of supply chains. Importers took advantage of differences in tariff rates between countries,…


eeuucbeconomia11

US inflation approaching 3%, economy slowing to 1.4% quarterly from 4.4% previously, discouraging Fed from lowering rates

Bankinter | The first reading of Q4 2025 GDP in the US shows growth moderating more than expected to 1.4% annualised quarterly against 2.8% expected and 4.4% previously. However, in year-on-year terms, the decline is milder: 2.2% against 2.3% previously, with consumption at 2.2% against 2.6% previously. The negative aspect comes from the GDP price deflator, which rose to 3.3% year-on-year against 3.0% previously. The December Private Consumption Deflator rose…


containersTC

Trump announces global tariff of 15%, to take effect almost immediately,’ EU demands he abide by trade terms signed in 2025

Link Securities | US President Donald Trump announced on Friday the signing of an executive order that would impose a 10% global tariff on all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he changed his mind and said he would raise it to 15%. The decision came after it was revealed that the Supreme Court had ruled that his use of the International Emergency…


EEUU industria

Empire Manufacturing indicates that manufacturing activity in New York continues to expand

Bankinter | Empire Manufacturing (February): 7.1 versus 6.2 expected versus 7.7 previous. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The indicator shows that manufacturing activity in NY continues to expand moderately. New Orders remained positive (5.8), reflecting continued growth in demand, albeit at a moderate pace. Shipments weakened and fell to -1.0, signalling a stabilisation after the strength of the previous month (16.3). In the labour market, the Employment Index improved to positive…


eeuu inflacion precios 1

US CPI surprises in January with overall rate moderating to 2.4% and core of 2.5%

Bankinter | The CPI surprised on the upside in January. The headline rate moderated more than expected to 2.4% (-0.3pp), while the core rate of 2.5% (-0.1pp) was in line with expectations. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The good performance of inflation allows for a dovish/loose monetary policy by the Fed, whose reference rate is currently in the 3.50% / 3.75% range. Despite this, the strength of recent labour market data…



Cosco

US import prices stagnate at 0.0% in 2025, while export prices grow 3.1%

Link Securities | The Department of Labour reported yesterday that import prices rose 0.1% in December compared to November, a reading that was in line with analysts’ consensus forecasts. In December, the increase in non-fuel goods prices offset the decline in energy prices. Excluding fuels, import prices rose 0.2% in December, while non-oil prices rose 0.4%. Price increases were observed in several categories, including food, feed and beverages (0.5%), industrial…


eeuu comprasnavidad

US retail sales register 0.0% in December compared to 0.6% in previous month

Intermoney | Retail sales stagnated in December, compared to the 0.4% increase we could have expected and the 0.6% in November. It should be noted that at the start of the Christmas season, sales were brought forward to take advantage of some of the discounts at the end of November, which we believe led to greater weakness in the last month of the year. Monthly sales increased in only five…


China inflacion precios

Deflationary pressure increases in January in China, CPI moderates to 0.2% year-on-year against 0.8% previously

Bankinter | The CPI in China moderates to 0.2% year-on-year against 0.4% expected and 0.8% previously, while Industrial Prices accelerated to negative 1.4% against -1.5% expected and -1.9% previously. Analysis team’s view: Negative impact. Inflation moderates more than expected, although it is distorted by a base effect comparing January 2025, when Chinese New Year was celebrated, versus January 2026, when there was no such holiday as this year it begins…


donald trump

Trump believes Kevin Warsh can boost country’s economy to 15% growth rate

CdM | US President Donald Trump believes that Kevin Warsh, his nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), can boost the country’s economy to grow at a rate of 15%. He made this statement in an interview on Fox Business, in which he made it clear that if Warsh ‘does the job he is capable of doing,’ the US ‘can grow at 15%, I think even more.’ ‘I think…