In the World



The Strait of Hormuz was temporarily closed by Iran

Oil Prices: What If The Strait Of Hormuz Was Temporarily Closed By Iran?

A key issue that President Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly helped highlight was the rising tensions in the Gulf. As one measure of this, analysts at BNY Mellon note that “while it’s tempting to dismiss this as saber-rattling by both sides, the debate over Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz has been going on since the early 1980s.”


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell Does Not Believe The Current Fiscal Policy Is Sustainable

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The effective rate will evolve in a corridor between 2% and 2.25%. The dots graph reflecting monetary policy committee members’ expectations suggests 3 rate increases in 2019, 1 in 2020 and none in 2021. As pointed by Philippe Waechter from Natixis IM, this profile, for 2019 and 2020, is unchanged from last June forecasts.


US expansion has already Lasted nine and a half years. Will it end any time?

The Return Of US Dollar Pain To Emerging Markets

Emerging markets have been suffering from the global tightening of financial conditions the rise (rising
US yield and dollar). At this stage, according to AXA IM “the sell-off remains differentiated and the impact on which risks disrupting the global supply chain, as well as worries of China’s internal growth is manageable.”

Global debt is at 380% of world GDP

Hiding Global Debt, Housing The Black Swan Of The Next Crisis

The world is over indebted, with a total debt at 380% of global GDP. It is three times it was before the crisis. This debt is both private and public. However, there is no data available on the extent to which this debt has been financed by stock market speculation. We can only infer, from the excessive levels of these indices, that a major part is acting in this activity.


Twitter and Facebook must grow up

For Facebook and Twitter, the World Is Not Flat

If you thought social media’s challenge was limited to the US, then look further. Facebook, Twitter and Google face additional challenges while dealing with India. Their ability to stay relevant and monetize is based on three factors: a) the size of their user base; b) user interaction rates with the platforms; and c) how many users trust these platforms?



FannieMae

US Is About To Repeat The Errors Of The Past

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | In 2008 they hardly demanded anything of someone seeking a mortgage. They were the famous Ninja credits (‘No Income, No Job, No Assets’). Today, in the US, to sign a mortgage requires the buyer to out his signature at least 33 times, plus 6 or 7 more in which he must put his initials in boxes esecially designed for them. It is only one of the changes experiences in the world’s superpower since Lehman Brothers went backrupt a decade ago.


The economic cold war between the US and China is here to stay

China-US Friendship Goes Deeper Than Fights Over Trade, Pollution

James Rice via Caixin | The U.S. media’s daily narrative on China and the U.S.-China relationship paint a bleak picture: Pollution, exchange rates, ghost cities, protectionism, and unfair trade practices dominate the story. Rather, we should remember that historically, China and the U.S. have been friends and have long enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship.