In the World

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Current component of NY manufacturing index improves to 18.7 against 10.7 previously

Bankinter | The Empire Manufacturing or New York Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (November) shows a mixed reading, although in expansion territory (>0). The current component improved unexpectedly to 18.7 against 5.8 expected and 10.7 previously, while the six-month outlook worsened to 19.1 against 30.3 previously. Analysis team’s view: This indicator, which surveys 200 executives in the manufacturing sector in New York State, shows less optimism about the economy’s performance, although…


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Victory in Bihar strengthens Modi’s party’s position in governing coalition and means greater leeway to negotiate trade agreement with US

Bankinter | Bihar state elections. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bloc, led by Narendra Modi’s party, has won a comfortable victory in the regional elections in the state of Bihar. Out of a total of 243 seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, Modi’s party won 89, while its main regional ally, the Janata Dal party, won 83 seats. Overall, the alliance won 200 of the 243 seats. Bihar accounts for…


oil

OPEC shifts from estimating deficit to surplus of oil for 2026, while IEA forecasts rising demand over next 25 years

Bankinter | OPEC estimates that there will be an oil surplus of 20,000 bpd in 2026, which contrasts with the deficit forecast in previous reports: 70,000 bpd in September and 50,000 bpd in October. Yesterday, Brent fell by almost 4% for this reason. This contrasts with what the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the day before: global demand for oil and gas will increase over the next 25 years, as…


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Singles’ Day aims to counteract weak domestic consumption in China: Alibaba extends it to 20 countries

Bankinter | Yesterday marked the biggest online shopping event of the year in China (and the world), known as ‘Singles’ Day’ (11.11). Launched in 2009 by Alibaba as a promotional event, it has grown in duration over the years. In 2025, it began on 9 October (JD.com) and 11 October (Alibaba), the earliest start in its history, resulting in a duration of five weeks compared to 28 days in 2024…


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National Retail Federation forecasts holiday season sales to grow by 3.7%/4.2%

Bankinter | The National Retail Federation forecasts that sales during the holiday season (1 November to 31 December) will grow by 3.7 to 4.2% compared to 4.3% in 2024. They will reach between $1,010 and $1,020 billion. ‘Consumers are cautious, but remain fundamentally strong and will continue to drive economic growth.’ The NRF remains optimistic about the Christmas season and expects consumers to continue looking for savings on non-essential products,…


China

China’s deflation problem not over: October CPI rises 0.2% against -0.1% expected

Norbolsa | Over the weekend, China released its October price data, showing a slight slowdown in producer price deflation (down 2.1% against the 2.2% drop expected), while the CPI rose 0.2% against the 0.1% drop expected, reflecting the effects of measures being taken to curb overcapacity and limit competition. In any case, the deflation problem is not over yet, as we have yet to see more vigorous demand. On the…


China Export Ship

Chinese exports fall 1.1% against expected increase of 3%, reversing September’s 8% rise

Link Securities | According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s trade surplus reached $90.07 billion in October, lower than the $95.6 billion expected by the consensus of analysts and the $95.72 billion recorded in the same month last year. This is the lowest trade surplus since February, as exports fell unexpectedly while imports increased. Specifically, exports fell 1.1% year-on-year, compared to the expected 3% increase, reversing September’s…


US jobs data

US creates 42,000 private sector jobs in October, after two months of losses

Link Securities | According to US payroll processor ADP, the US economy created 42,000 net private jobs in October, following two months in which private companies destroyed net jobs (3,000 in August and 29,000 in September). The FactSet analyst consensus expected a slightly lower reading of 37,500 net private jobs. In October, the education, healthcare, retail, transport and public services sectors led private employment growth in the US. Conversely, for…


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China to suspend additional 24% tariffs imposed on US products for one year

Norbolsa | China will suspend for one year the additional 24% tariffs it imposed on US products in April, maintaining the 10% tariffs on all US products introduced in retaliation for the tariffs announced on Liberation Day. In addition, the government announced that it will eliminate tariffs of up to 15% imposed on a range of agricultural products from 10 November, although it will maintain tariffs of 13% on Chinese…


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Trump-Xi’s Temporary Truce: What It Means for Taiwan

Alicia Gª Herrero (Natixis) | If the aim of the 30 October meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Busan, South Korea, was to ease trade tensions, it can be judged as just about achieved. US ‘fentanyl tariffs’ on China were halved to 10%, bringing US tariff levels on imports from China closer to those applied to other Asian economies.In return, China agreed to…