Morgan Stanley | During the first weeks of 2026, macro data has been particularly strong (retail sales / regional PMIs / jobless claims), pointing to greater momentum in consumer spending and less downside risk for the labour market and manufacturing activity. All this with limited upward pressure on inflation, allowing expectations to remain that the Fed will cut rates later in the year. According to Mike Gapen (US macro), this…
Bankinter | December CPI rises slightly above expectations: 3.4% versus 3.3% expected versus 3.2% previously. However, the underlying rate remained unchanged at 3.2% versus 3.3% expected. Services continue to be the biggest contributor to inflation: 4.5% versus 4.4% previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: Mixed data. Despite the rise in the overall rate, the core rate remains in line with the previous month. Lower wage pressures (weekly wage growth excluding bonuses…
Link Securities | The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its benchmark interest rates at record lows for the eighth consecutive month early this morning, in line with market forecasts, after previous reductions in the central bank’s lending and rediscount rates took effect. Last Thursday, the PBoC announced cuts in sector-specific interest rates of 25 basis points, effective 19 January, to provide an initial boost to the economy in the…
Bankinter | China’s GDP grew by 4.5% in Q4 2025. This growth is in line with consensus estimates and represents a slowdown from the 4.8% recorded in Q3. For 2025 as a whole, China’s growth stood at 5% (5.2% in 2024). Bankinter analysis team’s view: The Chinese economy is losing momentum. GDP growth in Q4 is the weakest since the reopening of Covid lockdowns at the end of 2022. Despite…
Bankinter | Trump threatens tariffs on countries that send troops to Greenland. The tariffs would be 10% and would begin on 1 February and rise to 25% on 1 June. The countries affected at this time are Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland. The tariffs would remain in effect until ‘an agreement for the complete and total purchase of Greenland’ is reached. Bankinter analysis…
Bankinter | Chinese authorities ban the use of cybersecurity products from American and Israeli companies for national security reasons. Among the names mentioned are Palo Alto, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, SentinelOne, CyberArk and even companies such as VMWare (acquired by Broadcom), Mandiant and Wizz (acquired by Alphabet) and Orca Security and Cato Networks (acquired by Thales). Bankinter analysis team’s view: This is a further step by the Chinese authorities to protect local…
Bankinter | December inflation was in line with expectations. Core inflation surprised on the upside. Positive reading. CPI remained at 2.7%, as expected. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile elements of the indicator (fresh food and energy), surprised on the upside, remaining at 2.6% (versus 2.7% expected). By component, petrol was the item that recorded the largest fall within the indicator (a drop of 3.4% year-on-year), while food (up3.1%)…
Intermoney | On the geopolitical agenda, where there are too many open fronts, issues such as Iran should not be overlooked. Since the beginning of the year, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime has been suffering from a wave of protests that are intensifying as a result of a battered economy and the currency crisis. This began at the end of last year, when the Iranian rial reached a historic low of…
Bankinter | The Australian Government has announced an investment of $1.185 billion to create a Critical Strategic Minerals Reserve. Initially included are antimony, gallium and rare earths for magnets, elements considered essential for high technology, clean technologies and advanced military hardware. They highlight the use of antimony for storage batteries, night vision equipment and high-performance fire-retardant materials; gallium for advanced semiconductors used in radar and telecommunications systems; and rare earths…
Link Securities | According to the Department of Labour, in December the US economy generated 50,000 net non-farm jobs, slightly less than the 56,000 jobs created in November, and below the consensus forecast by FactSet analysts, which was 55,000 new jobs. In the month analysed, the private sector generated 37,000 net jobs (50,000 jobs in November), while the public sector created 13,000 jobs (6,000 jobs in November). Analysts had projected…