In the World

Is it the Fed that has changed... or the world around it?

Fed will cut interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, according to survey

Link Securities | According to a survey of economists conducted by Reuters, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and do so again in December. A month ago, economists expected only one more cut this year. But the new forecast follows a recent shift in the expectations of Fed monetary policy makers, which now point to additional reductions. In this regard,…


China economia

Average spending per traveller during China’s Golden Week 0.55% lower than last year and 3% below pre-pandemic levels.

Intermoney | In the Asian giant, the first figures we saw for Golden Week in early October once again highlight the sluggishness of Chinese domestic demand. It is true that domestic tourist trips reached 888 million, up from 765 million in the same week in 2024, but this was because there was an extra public holiday this year. The key figure for assessing the strength of demand is the average…


The US is waiting for the impeachment

Senior Treasury official estimates cost of government shutdown could reach $15 billion per week

Norbolsa | A senior Treasury official has corrected estimates of the cost of the federal government shutdown, determining that it could cost the economy $15 billion per week, rather than per day as Scott Bessent had publicly claimed on two occasions. On the other hand, Bessent, without giving much detail, also stated that the deficit for fiscal year 2025 will be less than the $1.833 trillion published in the previous…


china calleCM

China’s CPI falls 0.3% year-on-year in September compared to 0.4% previously

Link Securities | According to official data, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% year-on-year in September, a deeper decline than the 0.1% consensus forecast by analysts, although slightly lower than the 0.4% decline in the previous month. Food prices accelerated their decline (a drop of 4.4% against 4.3% in August), recording the largest contraction since January 2024, amid widespread declines across all categories, with pork prices falling further due…


china aranceles

China’s trade balance deteriorates in September, but due to 7.4% rise in imports

2025 Bankinter | China’s trade balance deteriorates in September, although due to higher imports. The trade balance is $90.45 billion versus $98.05 billion estimated and $102.3 billion previously. Exports are up 8.3% year-on-year against 6.6% expected and 4.4% previously. Imports are up 7.4% year-on-year against 1.8% expected and 1.3% previously. Analysis team’s view: Although the trade balance is apparently weak, having fallen more than expected, the truth is that this…


EEUU Consumidores

US consumer confidence remains virtually unchanged in October compared to previous month: 55.0 points from 55.1

Link Securities | The index measuring US consumer sentiment, compiled by the University of Michigan, fell slightly in its preliminary October reading to 55.0 points from 55.1 points in September, falling below the 55.8 points expected by FactSet consensus analysts. The index remained virtually unchanged from the previous month, as improvements in current personal finances and future business conditions for the coming year were offset by declines in expectations for…


fed powell nov 2023

New statements from Fed members suggest prevailing view is to lower interest rates again in October

Norbolsa | New statements from Fed members suggest that the prevailing position is to lower interest rates again in October, despite some members advocating caution due to uncertainty about inflation. From New York, Governor John Williams said he would be comfortable lowering interest rates again, considering that the downside risk to employment is dominant and may have slowed further, while the pressure of tariffs on prices is not as high…


Ucrania tierras raras

China to restrict rare earth exports exclusively to purpose stated at the time of purchase

Alphavalue / Divacons | China will impose a US-style extraterritoriality system on its rare earth exports, restricting their use exclusively to the purpose stated at the time of purchase. Foreign products incorporating Chinese rare earths will also be subject to these controls (supplying international defence and semiconductor sectors) with penalties that would include supply limitations. With this decision, China is putting pressure on the face-to-face meeting it will hold with…


oil

OPEC+ t increase oil production by 137,000 bpd from November onwards

Link Securities | The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a modest increase in production, easing market fears of a larger rebound. On Sunday, the oil-producing alliance agreed to increase its production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, matching October’s increase, with markets viewing the move as cautious amid persistent concerns about potential oversupply. OPEC+ described its latest move as…


US labor market

US Economy Sheds 32,000 Net Private Jobs in September

According to payroll processor ADP, the U.S. economy shed 32,000 net private jobs in September. This figure compares very negatively with the 50,000 new net jobs forecast by FactSet consensus analysts. Furthermore, ADP reported a downward revision to its August job creation figures; the data now points to a loss of 3,000 net private jobs, compared to the 54,000 net jobs initially reported. The surprising reversal of the projected growth…