In the World

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US producer prices surprise with rise, prior to Middle East conflict, to 3.4% annual rate in February, up from 2.9% previously

Singular Bank | According to the BLS, in February, the US producer price index continued to accelerate its growth rate to 0.7% month-on-month (against 0.5% in January), in contrast to the moderation estimated by the consensus of analysts (0.3%). In turn, on a year-on-year basis, the PPI rose by 3.4% (against 2.9% in January). This trend occurred before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, so its impact…


EEUU manufacturas

US industrial production rises 0.2% in February compared with January, capacity utilisation remains stable at 76.3%

Link Securities | According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production in the US rose by 0.2% in February compared with January, slightly less than the 0.3% expected by the consensus of FactSet analysts. Meanwhile, manufacturing output grew by 0.2% in February compared with January, a figure in line with analysts’ expectations. Similarly, mining output rose by 0.8% over the month, whilst utility output fell by 0.6%, with electricity companies remaining…


china yuan mirada

Chinese industrial production rises 6.3% in January and February, exceeding 5% forecast and December’s 5.2%

Link Securities | The Chinese government has released certain economic figures for the January–February 2026 period: Thus, industrial production rose by 6.3% year-on-year in the two-month period of January and February, exceeding the 5% consensus forecast by analysts and the 5.2% recorded in December. Industrial robots, smartphones and integrated circuits stood out in this figure. Production of personal computers, solar panels and steel fell, whilst passenger vehicle production contracted by…


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US economy growing at slower pace than expected, but PCE comes in as positive surprise

Bankinter | The US economy is growing at a slower pace than expected, although the PCE comes in as a positive surprise. (i) Q4 2025 GDP revised significantly downwards: 0.7% q/q annualised against the expected 1.4% and preliminary figure of 4.4%. Consumption was also revised downwards: 2% against the expected 2.4% and preliminary figure of 3.5%. Of particular note is the rebound in the GDP deflator, revised upwards to 3.8%…


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IEA releases 400 million barrels from reserves: in practice, making up for 20 days’ worth of oil shortages

Bankinter | The International Energy Agency (IEA) is releasing 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves. 32 countries are contributing to this release, although the United States is leading the move with 172 million barrels. It is the largest release since 1970. For reference, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 172 million barrels per day were released. Bankinter analysis team’s view: We view the move positively, although the impact is…


petroleo esg

IEA proposes largest ever release of over 182 Mbd of oil reserves, exceeding 2022 releases due to invasion of Ukraine

Link Securities | According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter say that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest release of reserves in its history to lower oil prices, which have skyrocketed during the US and Israeli military conflict with Iran. According to some officials, the release could exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that EIA members put on the market twice in…


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US job creation surprises negatively, falling to minus 92K and pushing unemployment to 4.4%

Bankinter | Non-farm payrolls in February surprised negatively, falling to negative 92K (compared to the expected positive 65K and the previous positive 126K). The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (versus the expected 4.3% and the previous figure). Non-farm payrolls in February surprised negatively, falling to negative 92K from the previous positive 126K (revised from 130K), a figure well below market expectations (65K). This is the weakest job creation figure since…


china aranceles

China diverting exports to other markets despite US tariffs

Bankinter | The trade balance in the first two months of the year totalled $213.6 billion, compared to the expected $179.6 billion and the previous $169.21 billion. Exports rose 21.8% in the period, compared to an expected 7.1% and 6.6% in December. Imports rose 19.8%, compared to an expected 7.0% and 0.0% previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: Exports accelerated in the first two months of the year, driven by demand…


Trump Aranceles

24 US states sue administration in first legal challenge to newly imposed 10% global tariffs

Link Securities | Reuters reported on Friday that a group of 24 US states have sued the US administration in the first legal challenge to its newly imposed 10% global tariffs. The states argue that President Trump cannot circumvent the Supreme Court (SC) ruling that invalidated most of his previous tariffs on imported goods by citing new legal authority. The Democrat-led states, including New York, California and Oregon, argue that…


newyork services

Mixed data in US service indicators: February PMI falls to 10-month low of 51.7 points, ISM rises to 56.1 from 53.8 previously

Link Securities | The US services sector purchasing managers’ index, the services PMI compiled by S&P Global, fell in its final February reading to 51.7 points (a 10-month low) from 52.3 points in January, falling below the 52.3 points in its preliminary reading, which was what FactSet consensus analysts had expected. Any reading above 50 points suggests expansion of activity relative to the previous month, and below that level, contraction….