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World economy 6th March 2024

China’s 5% target confirmed in the Two Sessions, but how to get there?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis)| Not surprisingly, the Chinese government has set a high growth target of 5% for 2024, mirroring last year’s. The move is consistent with the market expectation, but achieving the goal is not without challenges, at least when using the early indicators for the first quarter, especially PMI numbers. China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs stood at 49.1 and 50.8 on average, respectively, over the past three months…

World economy 5th March 2024

FDA authorises Laboratorios Rovi to export vaccines manufactured with mRNA technology to the US

Bankinter: After a long process of inspection of its factories, the Company has obtained this authorisation, which makes it possible to manufacture in Spain and sell in the United States Moderna’s anti-COVID vaccine and a next generation of vaccines that Moderna plans to introduce in the market based on the same technology. Assessment: Very positive news that improves the outlook for Rovi’s third party manufacturing, which already represents approximately 50%…

World economy 5th March 2024

Macro hedge funds outperform equities as volatility rises

J. P. Morgan | At the beginning of the year, both the equity and bond markets were positioned for an aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. However, with core inflation remaining persistent and the US economy proving resilient, markets are now reassessing how many rate cuts central banks will make this year. In an environment where markets continue to be affected by data surprises, we expect to see elevated volatility. In…

World economy 4th March 2024

OPEC+ members agree to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day through 2Q2024

Link Securities| Members of the alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to extend their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day of oil during 2Q2024, giving extra support to the market, in an environment of concern about global growth, and the increase in production of countries outside this alliance. Saudi…

World economy 1st March 2024

G20 considers global inflation close to being “effectively tamed”

The G20 finance ministers, meeting in São Paulo (Brazil), consider that inflation is not far from being “effectively controlled” and affirmed that they will continue to pay “close attention” to its trajectory in order to avoid an upturn, Brazilian official sources reported on Thursday. The director of International Affairs of the Central Bank of Brazil, Paulo Picchetti, who participated in the two days of work of the G20 Finance, said…

World economy 28th February 2024

US banks ready to use Fed funding mechanism, Standing Repo Facility, that has been dormant for over two years

Norbolsa| Banks are finally signing up for a US Federal Reserve funding mechanism that has been largely dormant for more than two years, putting them in a stronger position to cope with any stress. It is unclear, however, whether they will want to use it in the event of a crisis. The Standing Repo Facility allows banks to borrow emergency overnight cash from the Federal Reserve through a repurchase agreement,…

World economy 27th February 2024

Japan’s January inflation eases for third month in a row to 2.2% vs. 2.6% previously due to mirror effect in energy prices (-12.1%)

Bankinter : January CPI in Japan reaches +2.2% year-on-year vs. +1.9% expected and +2.6% previous. Underlying: +3.5% vs. +3.3% expected and +3.7% previously. Analysis: The price indicator decelerates for the third consecutive month, although it defies expectations in both readings. This slowdown is mostly due to a mirror effect in energy prices (-12.1% year-on-year). Since, after the strong rebound in energy, as of February 2023, the government implemented subsidies to…

World economy 26th February 2024

Warner Bros. sales in 4Q23 dragged down to $10.284M after 12% drop in ad revenue

Bankinter | The US film and entertainment company has released results that largely fail to meet expectations. 4Q 2023 figures (against Bloomberg consensus): Revenue $10,284M vs. $10,465M estimate, EBITDA $2,471M vs. $2,805M estimate, adjusted EPS -0.16$ vs -0.092$ estimate. The published figures are negatively impacted by the -12% drop in ad revenue. The company beat analyst estimates in direct-to-consumer subscribers, reaching 97.7 million, including acquisitions such as Turkish streaming service…

World economy 26th February 2024

When will China recover from the cyclical downturn?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s economy has been experiencing a structural slowdown, but what is causing concern now is that it is also slipping below its potential and undergoing a cyclical downturn. The faster deceleration in investment compared to consumption, along with weak CPI data, already provides evidence of China’s negative output gap.To assess empirically where China stands with its cycle, we use a model developed by Holston-Laubach-Williams (2023)…

World economy 25th February 2024

Acciona signs agreement potentially worth around €1.37 billion for Toronto underground extension

Link Securities| A consortium participated by Acciona (ANA) has signed an agreement with the Ontario administration in Canada for the development of a new section of the Toronto underground extension currently underway, with an estimated maximum value of up to CA$2 billion (around €1.37 billion), according to the newspaper Expansión. Acciona’s joint venture with Canada’s Amico has thus beaten the other two bids submitted in the tender, the first consisting…

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