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In the World 5th March 2026

Positive reading from China’s private activity register, although official figures show slight deterioration

Bankinter | Positive activity data in February, deepening in the expansion zone (>50). RatingDog Composite PMI: 51.6 against 51.3 previously; RatingDog Services PMI: 56.7 against 52.3 expected and 52.3 previously. RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 52.1 against 50.1 expected and 50.3 previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: Positive reading of the private activity register (RatingDog), although it contrasts with the official figures also released on Wednesday, which show a slight deterioration: Manufacturing PMI…

In the World, Markets 2nd March 2026

Since 1991, conflicts between US and Middle Eastern countries have been bullish for three months (and beyond) for S&P 500

Renta 4 | The main US indices are starting the week in a very similar vein to the last three months, mired, especially the S&P 500, in a tedious sideways range, with support at 6,780 points and resistance at 7,000 points. The two major support levels for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 this year can be clearly seen in the chart below, with November’s lows of 6,520 points as…

In the World 2nd March 2026

OPEC+ to increase oil production by 206,000 bpd from April

Bankinter | OPEC+ to increase oil production by +206,000 bpd from April. The increase is justified by the fact that the global economic outlook is stable and oil reserves are low. Bankinter analysis team’s view: This decision has been taken by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. It is part of the objective of gradually introducing into the market the 1.65 Mb/d of voluntary cuts…

In the World 25th February 2026

US consumer confidence rises 2.2 points in January to 91.2, but remains below November 2024 figure of 112.8

Singular Bank | In February, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in the US rose 2.2 points to 91.2 points following an upward revision of January’s figure (89.0 points). This reading significantly exceeded market consensus estimates (87.4 points), although it remains well below the four-year high of 112.8 reached in November 2024. At the same time, the present situation index rose 6.3 points to 120.0 points and the expectations index…

World economy 24th February 2026

US Reaches Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Deficit in 2025, the Year of Tariffs

Pyden&Rygel | Data released last week shows that the US nominal goods trade deficit widened to $1.2 trillion in 2025, the highest level since 1960. This occurred despite the most significant tariff tightening in decades, which had the explicit goal of narrowing that very gap. How can this contradiction be explained? The answer lies in the reorganization of supply chains. Importers took advantage of differences in tariff rates between countries,…

In the World, Uncategorised 24th February 2026

US inflation approaching 3%, economy slowing to 1.4% quarterly from 4.4% previously, discouraging Fed from lowering rates

Bankinter | The first reading of Q4 2025 GDP in the US shows growth moderating more than expected to 1.4% annualised quarterly against 2.8% expected and 4.4% previously. However, in year-on-year terms, the decline is milder: 2.2% against 2.3% previously, with consumption at 2.2% against 2.6% previously. The negative aspect comes from the GDP price deflator, which rose to 3.3% year-on-year against 3.0% previously. The December Private Consumption Deflator rose…

In the World, Uncategorised 23rd February 2026

Trump announces global tariff of 15%, to take effect almost immediately,’ EU demands he abide by trade terms signed in 2025

Link Securities | US President Donald Trump announced on Friday the signing of an executive order that would impose a 10% global tariff on all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he changed his mind and said he would raise it to 15%. The decision came after it was revealed that the Supreme Court had ruled that his use of the International Emergency…

In the World 19th February 2026

Empire Manufacturing indicates that manufacturing activity in New York continues to expand

Bankinter | Empire Manufacturing (February): 7.1 versus 6.2 expected versus 7.7 previous. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The indicator shows that manufacturing activity in NY continues to expand moderately. New Orders remained positive (5.8), reflecting continued growth in demand, albeit at a moderate pace. Shipments weakened and fell to -1.0, signalling a stabilisation after the strength of the previous month (16.3). In the labour market, the Employment Index improved to positive…

In the World 17th February 2026

US CPI surprises in January with overall rate moderating to 2.4% and core of 2.5%

Bankinter | The CPI surprised on the upside in January. The headline rate moderated more than expected to 2.4% (-0.3pp), while the core rate of 2.5% (-0.1pp) was in line with expectations. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The good performance of inflation allows for a dovish/loose monetary policy by the Fed, whose reference rate is currently in the 3.50% / 3.75% range. Despite this, the strength of recent labour market data…

In the World 13th February 2026

Trump’s policies worsen US fiscal outlook: budget deficit to grow slightly to $1.853 trillion in 2026

Norbolsa | The US budget deficit will grow slightly in 2026 to $1.853 trillion, rising to around 5.8% of GDP, and the average for the next decade will be around 6.1%, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), suggesting that Trump’s economic policies are worsening the US fiscal outlook.

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