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World economy 14th February 2023

Japan’s GDP rises by 1.1% in 2022, compared to 2.1% growth in 2021

Link Securities | According to data from the Japanese government cabinet, Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% in 4Q2022 compared to 3Q2022, compared to a revised contraction of 0.3% in the previous quarter, although the reading was below the 0.5% growth expected by the analyst consensus, which was in line with the preliminary reading of the figure. Private consumption rose after the removal of tight border controls, and…

China is the world’s third largest bond market

World economy 14th February 2023

China’s overseas tourism data hint at disguised but smaller capital flights

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | As the world awaits the return of Chinese tourists, a long-standing question may reemerge. China has gradually opened its capital account over the past decade, but there are still considerable restrictions. As a result, tourism has become one of the channels for capital flights based on the difference between the balance of payment data in China and globally. But there is a major problem with…

World economy, World politics 13th February 2023

Russia may be using oil as weapon in economic war: production to be cut by some 500,000 bpd

Link Securities | The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday that Russia’s government had that day announced that it plans to cut its oil production by about 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5 percent, starting next month, in a move it said was in response to Western sanctions. The newspaper notes that Friday’s move is the first in which Russia telegraphed a specific response to oil markets to…

Relevant News Item, World economy 11th February 2023

UK dodges recession in last quarter of 2022 with 4% GDP growth

CoM | The UK economy, the second largest in the Old Continent, stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2022, narrowly managing to avoid going into technical recession, following a 0.2% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported. Despite dodging recession in the last quarter of 2022, the British economy contracted by 0.5% in December, after growing…

World economy 10th February 2023

China inflation rebounds to 2.1% but still far from central bank’s target

Bankinter : Inflation rebounded three tenths to +2.1% in January (in line with expectations), but the fall in producer prices gained inertia (-0.8% vs -0.5% expected vs -0.7% previously). Analysis: The rebound in inflation is explained by the rise in food prices (+6.2% vs +4.8% previously) and the increase in demand, especially in leisure-related products and services after the lunar year. The decline in producer prices is good news because…

In the World, World economy 10th February 2023

Almost half of world’s GDP depends on biodiversity (about $44 trillion)

Allianz GI: Biodiversity loss is an underestimated environmental problem of our time. How could investors benefit from investing in solutions based on protecting nature? The main key issues are: Food production has caused 80% of deforestation and 70% of terrestrial biodiversity loss.Land degradation has cost 10% of annual global GDP in lost ecosystem services.Currently, only 3% of global climate finance goes to nature-based solutions.Investments in ecosystem restoration generate on average…

World economy 9th February 2023

Expectations about role of the State may be frustrated by declining spending and decreasing government effectiveness

Agnieszka Gehringer (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute) | Governments are increasingly being given new tasks to achieve various economic policy objectives. Looking at the major eurozone members, this report shows that high expectations about the role of the state in solving the most pressing problems may be frustrated by declining productivity of public spending and decreasing government effectiveness. Public spending in the four large euro area Member States, Germany, France,…

World economy 7th February 2023

The positive spillover of China’s revenge outbound tourism

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The grand comeback in Asia is taking shape, but there is one missing piece. Although China, the world’s largest international travel spender, is still on its recovery path, it will eventually return to global prominence. Before the COVID pandemic, Chinese tourists had become an integral part of the global tourism sector with their spending share rising from 8% in 2010 to 16% in 2019. The…

World economy 6th February 2023

US labour market strength (unemployment 3.4%) hinders Fed’s roadmap

Bankinter: Non-agricultural job creation (January) reaches 517K vs 188K estimated and 223K previous. The unemployment rate stands at 3.4% vs. 3.6% estimated and 3.5% previous. Wages increase +4.4% vs. +4.6% previously (+4.3% estimated). Analysis: The data reflect the strength of the labour market, but may hinder the Fed’s roadmap. The future evolution of interest rates depends, to a large extent, on the evolution of inflationary pressures, including those coming from…

World economy 2nd February 2023

Powell’s dovish hints water down Fed’s stance

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Fed’s message was tough enough, warning that the hiking cycle will go on unabated, even if it loses some steam, until inflation comes fully under control. The markets expected the quarter per cent rise in the Federal funds would prompt Powell to offset such a slowdown with a hawkish performance. Yet, in the press conference, he provided enough dovish hints to send the stocks bouncing back…

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