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US Black Friday retail sales, excluding automobiles, up almost 4.1% on 2024, according to Mastercard

Link Securities | According to various sources cited by the financial portal Barron’s, Black Friday sales in the US were higher than a year ago, both online and in stores. • Mastercard SpendingPulse indicated that retail sales in the US, excluding automobiles, increased by approximately 4.1% compared to Black Friday 2024. E-commerce sales increased by 10.4% over last year, while in-store sales increased by a modest 1.7%. • Adobe, meanwhile,…


china componentes

China’s manufacturing PMI rises to 49.2 points in November, in line with expectations

Link Securities | China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, the manufacturing PMI, rose slightly in November to 49.2 points, from 49.0 points the previous month, in line with analysts’ consensus expectations. We note that a reading above 50 points indicates expansion of activity compared to the previous month, while a reading below that level indicates contraction. The underlying components showed an improvement, with production turning neutral. Meanwhile, declines in new…


compras navidad

Black Friday online sales increase 9.1% to $11.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics

Bankinter | Black Friday online sales increase by 9.1% to $11.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. – According to Mastercard, 10.4%. AI-induced sales 805%. Companies such as Walmart (Sparky) and Amazon (Rufus) have launched AI search tools this year that facilitate a faster and more guided product selection process. Salesforce estimates that AI has generated global online sales of $14.2 billion (£12.6 billion) ($3 billion in the US, 25% of…


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US consumer confidence deteriorates significantly to 88.7 points in November

Intermoney | Consumer confidence, as measured by the Empire State index, deteriorated significantly in November, falling to 88.7 points (from 95.5 previously). This figure was significantly below the consensus expectation of 93.3. Future expectations also took a clear step backwards to 63.2, while perceptions of the current situation fell 4.3 points to 126.9 points. Consumers’ perceptions of the current labour market were slightly weaker, and the labour market differential, the…


compras navidad

National Retail Federation expects spending to grow 3.7% to 4% during Christmas period

Norbolsa | On the eve of Thanksgiving and with data delayed due to the shutdown (today we will learn the retail sales figures for September), the market is looking at other consumer benchmarks. This Tuesday, it echoes the National Retail Federation’s sales estimate for the Christmas period (November-December), which expects spending to grow by between 3.7% and 4% this year, exceeding the billion-pound mark. For the period between Black Friday…


EEUU empleo

US job creation higher than expected after shutdown, but unemployment rises to 4.4%

Norbolsa | On Thursday, the US employment report for September was published, providing more complex readings for predicting the Fed’s next steps. On the one hand, we had higher-than-expected job creation figures, with revisions for the previous three months also positive on balance. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% due to increased participation. In addition to the mixed reading of the data, the delay in data due…


EEUU construccion 1

ADP reports weekly job loss in US of 2,500 people in four weeks ending 1 November

Bankinter | On Tuesday, the ADP published an average weekly job loss of 2,500 people in the four weeks ending 1 November. These figures suggest that the labour market lost some momentum at the end of October, although the pace of job losses moderated in early November. Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative data reflecting a slowdown in the labour market, although slightly improved from 11,250 people (weekly average) in the…


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Current component of NY manufacturing index improves to 18.7 against 10.7 previously

Bankinter | The Empire Manufacturing or New York Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (November) shows a mixed reading, although in expansion territory (>0). The current component improved unexpectedly to 18.7 against 5.8 expected and 10.7 previously, while the six-month outlook worsened to 19.1 against 30.3 previously. Analysis team’s view: This indicator, which surveys 200 executives in the manufacturing sector in New York State, shows less optimism about the economy’s performance, although…


india modi

Victory in Bihar strengthens Modi’s party’s position in governing coalition and means greater leeway to negotiate trade agreement with US

Bankinter | Bihar state elections. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bloc, led by Narendra Modi’s party, has won a comfortable victory in the regional elections in the state of Bihar. Out of a total of 243 seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, Modi’s party won 89, while its main regional ally, the Janata Dal party, won 83 seats. Overall, the alliance won 200 of the 243 seats. Bihar accounts for…


oil

OPEC shifts from estimating deficit to surplus of oil for 2026, while IEA forecasts rising demand over next 25 years

Bankinter | OPEC estimates that there will be an oil surplus of 20,000 bpd in 2026, which contrasts with the deficit forecast in previous reports: 70,000 bpd in September and 50,000 bpd in October. Yesterday, Brent fell by almost 4% for this reason. This contrasts with what the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the day before: global demand for oil and gas will increase over the next 25 years, as…