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In the World 11th November 2025

National Retail Federation forecasts holiday season sales to grow by 3.7%/4.2%

Bankinter | The National Retail Federation forecasts that sales during the holiday season (1 November to 31 December) will grow by 3.7 to 4.2% compared to 4.3% in 2024. They will reach between $1,010 and $1,020 billion. ‘Consumers are cautious, but remain fundamentally strong and will continue to drive economic growth.’ The NRF remains optimistic about the Christmas season and expects consumers to continue looking for savings on non-essential products,…

In the World 11th November 2025

China’s deflation problem not over: October CPI rises 0.2% against -0.1% expected

Norbolsa | Over the weekend, China released its October price data, showing a slight slowdown in producer price deflation (down 2.1% against the 2.2% drop expected), while the CPI rose 0.2% against the 0.1% drop expected, reflecting the effects of measures being taken to curb overcapacity and limit competition. In any case, the deflation problem is not over yet, as we have yet to see more vigorous demand. On the…

In the World 7th November 2025

Chinese exports fall 1.1% against expected increase of 3%, reversing September’s 8% rise

Link Securities | According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s trade surplus reached $90.07 billion in October, lower than the $95.6 billion expected by the consensus of analysts and the $95.72 billion recorded in the same month last year. This is the lowest trade surplus since February, as exports fell unexpectedly while imports increased. Specifically, exports fell 1.1% year-on-year, compared to the expected 3% increase, reversing September’s…

In the World 6th November 2025

US creates 42,000 private sector jobs in October, after two months of losses

Link Securities | According to US payroll processor ADP, the US economy created 42,000 net private jobs in October, following two months in which private companies destroyed net jobs (3,000 in August and 29,000 in September). The FactSet analyst consensus expected a slightly lower reading of 37,500 net private jobs. In October, the education, healthcare, retail, transport and public services sectors led private employment growth in the US. Conversely, for…

In the World 5th November 2025

China to suspend additional 24% tariffs imposed on US products for one year

Norbolsa | China will suspend for one year the additional 24% tariffs it imposed on US products in April, maintaining the 10% tariffs on all US products introduced in retaliation for the tariffs announced on Liberation Day. In addition, the government announced that it will eliminate tariffs of up to 15% imposed on a range of agricultural products from 10 November, although it will maintain tariffs of 13% on Chinese…

In the World 4th November 2025

Trump-Xi’s Temporary Truce: What It Means for Taiwan

Alicia Gª Herrero (Natixis) | If the aim of the 30 October meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Busan, South Korea, was to ease trade tensions, it can be judged as just about achieved. US ‘fentanyl tariffs’ on China were halved to 10%, bringing US tariff levels on imports from China closer to those applied to other Asian economies.In return, China agreed to…

In the World 3rd November 2025

China’s manufacturing PMI declines in October due to slower growth in new orders from foreign sector

Bankinter | The Manufacturing PMI (RatingDog) declines in October. It stands at 50.6 vs. 51.2 previously and 50.8 estimated. Since August 2025, the Caixin PMI has changed its name to the RatingDog PMI. The universe of companies surveyed by RatingDog (650 companies in total) is more focused on private companies of different sectors and sizes, weighted by their contribution to GDP. The Chinese government’s official PMI focuses on state-owned enterprises…

In the World 31st October 2025

Manufacturing activity in China loses momentum in October, lowest level in seven months, due to tariffs

Bankinter | Manufacturing activity falls more than expected in October in China. Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 points versus 49.6 expected and 49.8 previously; Services PMI 50.1 versus 50.0 expected and Composite PMI 50.0 versus 50.6 previously. Analysis team’s view: Weak figures. Manufacturing activity lost momentum in October and entered contraction territory (<50 points). This is the lowest figure in the last seven months and reflects that the impact of tariffs is…

In the World 30th October 2025

US to reduce general tariff on China to 47% in exchange for purchase of US soybeans and suspension of restrictions on rare earths

Bankinter | Trade agreement reached. The United States will reduce its general tariff on China from 57% to 47% based on cutting the tariff on fentanyl precursor products from 20% to 10% in exchange for China’s efforts to curb illegal trade in this substance. China will resume soybean purchases and rare earth exports to the United States. The agreement is valid for one year, although, according to Trump, it could…

In the World 28th October 2025

Adobe Analytics expects Christmas season online sales in US to increase 5.3% to $253.4 billion

Bankinter | According to Adobe Analytics, online sales during the Christmas season will increase by 5.3% to $253.4 billion between November 1 and December 31. This represents a slowdown compared to 8.7% in 2024, although it would only be slightly below the average of 5.7% for the 2022-2024 period. The biggest shopping day will be Cyber Monday, when growth of 6.3% to $14.2 billion is expected. Adobe expects online sales…

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