Reported by the Editorial Team Martijn Rats (analyst at Morgan Stanley) notes that the seven-day moving average of the number of oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz has risen to 5.6 per day, with the majority of outgoing vessels now being crude oil tankers. He highlights that observed outflows of crude oil and petroleum products reached 8 mbbl on 19 June and 6 mbbl on 20 June, representing a…
Report by Renta 4 Flat opening on European markets (Eurostoxx 50 futures 0%) following yesterday’s session, which was characterised by falls in the technology sector (Nasdaq down 3%), amid worsening sentiment surrounding AI due to a combination of factors, notably advances in Chinese models that could offer better value for money – a form of competition that could cast doubt on the leadership of the major US tech firms. Even…
Andy Burnham has promised to abide by the fiscal rules set out by Minister Rachel Reeves to reassure investors and prevent a sharp rise in debt, and not to raise income tax, National Insurance contributions or VAT. He is a staunch advocate of returning public control — though not public ownership — of water, energy and the railways, and maintains a more pro-European stance than Starmer. Analysis by Editorial Team…
Analysis by Capital Group Global dividends got off to a positive start in 2026, rising by 8.2% in total terms (excluding currency effects and one-off payments) to reach a record high of $419,000 million in the first quarter, slightly above expectations. This means they have more than doubled in just ten years, driven by rising corporate profits and an increasingly widespread culture of dividend payments. The total figure was boosted…
As expected, central bankers left interest rate policy unchanged and removed the dovish bias from their press release. But there was undoubtedly more to come… The statement is much shorter and focuses solely on price stability. It offers no forward guidance and no longer reveals how members voted on the decision. However, the real surprise in terms of its hawkish tone lay in the dot plot. Nine of the 18…
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Tressis notes that the reduction in geopolitical risk following the agreement between the United States and Iran, coupled with strong corporate results, supports maintaining invested portfolios; however, persistent inflation, the monetary tsunami and the high concentration of market leadership call for continued caution. Reported by Mari Pinardo “The impact of the war has been disproportionately exaggerated”. This is how Daniel Lacalle,…
Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team Based on strategic realism, not pessimistic prophecy, and with the aim of providing Spanish companies with a tool to better understand the events that are shaking up the geopolitical, economic and commercial landscape, Cesce’s Country Risk Unit has produced a new edition of its International Outlook report, the eleventh. “Our country’s business community cannot be a mere spectator in a scenario such as the current…
Report by Renta 4 European markets open lower (Eurostoxx futures down 0.5%, S&P futures up 0.6%, Nasdaq futures up 1.5%) whilst Asian markets close higher (Japan’s Nikkei up 1.7%, South Korean Kospi up 1.3%) and news that Trump has signed the memorandum of understanding (following rumours of a possible delay until Wednesday) to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, bringing forward the timetable for the…
Report by Renta 4 Flat opening on European markets (Eurostoxx futures down 0.1%, S&P futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%) and modest gains in Asia (Nikkei up 0.8%, Kospi up 1%), with markets keeping a close eye on US-Iran negotiations (the draft MoU has already been published) and with Brent crude continuing to fall (down 16% over five sessions to 78 USD/b), as attention focuses on whether physical traffic…
The new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appears to favour giving greater weight to the Trimmed Mean PCE at the expense of the traditional Core PCE, which has been the benchmark indicator to date. The distinction is not insignificant. Whilst the Core PCE systematically excludes food and energy, the Trimmed Mean discards components with the most extreme price fluctuations, regardless of their category. A more surgical approach, in…