Report by Renta 4 European markets opened lower (Eurostoxx futures down 0.5%) whilst US markets edged higher (S&P futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq futures up 0.4%) following falls of more than 1% yesterday, closing at session lows, and a flat session in Asia (Japanese Nikkei up 0.1%, South Korean Kospi up 0.1%) on a day when the main focus will be on the ECB, which we expect to announce its first…
By Morgan Stanley According to Morgan Stanley, “Liquidity is slowing and poses a short-term risk. Although the Fed (USD 40bn/month through the RMP programme), the Treasury (USD 125bn in buybacks) and the reduction in capital requirements for banks (USD 200bn) have significantly boosted liquidity in Q1 … this momentum is slowing … with the RMP being reduced to USD 10bn/month and Treasury buybacks moderating. This, coupled with China also aggressively…
By José Ramón Díez Now that the three months of conflict in the Middle East are behind us, the effects of the supply shock caused by rising energy prices will gradually become apparent in the inflation and growth data. The combination of uncertainty and resilience that has characterised the global economy’s performance in recent times creates a fragile balance, particularly whilst geopolitical risk remains at very high levels. This situation…
Report by Bankinter The US has bombed Iranian air defences near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is responding with attacks in various parts of the Middle East. Although these attacks appear to have been successfully intercepted, they are weighing on stock markets: Japan (down 2%); South Korea (down 6.5%); NY futures (down 0.2%)… However, what will really determine the direction of today’s session is US inflation (14:30) for May….
Report by Renta 4 Flat opening on European markets (Eurostoxx futures down 0.1%, S&P futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%) and a strong rebound in Asia (Japan’s Nikkei 2%, South Korea’s Kospi 8%) Yesterday, once again, and following the overnight escalation in the Middle East conflict, with crossfire between Israel and Iran and Hezbollah’s admission of having taken part in the attack on Israel (whilst banning Israeli shipping in…
Report by Bankinter This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase: in April and May, production rose by 206,000 bpd each month, and in June by 188,000 bpd. Bankinter analysis team’s view: the impact of the news is moderate, in a context where supply has fallen sharply. As a reference, in April OPEC+ production stood at 33.2 million barrels per day (Mbd), representing a reduction of almost 10 Mbd compared to…
Continue reading: I expect to see further weakening as well. A push to lower liquidity requirements appears likely. And I have spoken recently about my concerns with proposals that would degrade requirements that banks hold sufficient portfolios of high-quality liquid assets relative to their projected needs in stress. We know that liquidity is essential to reduce the risk and severity of bank runs, and I fear that such a reduction…
The shifting global geopolitical and economic landscape, coupled with doubts about the sustainability of public finances, is making real assets—which governments cannot simply print—increasingly attractive. By Géraldine Sundstrom Investors must be realistic. We live in a world marked by uncertainty, multipolar rivalries, geopolitical instability, and technological transformations and advances. Disruptions to supply chains are mounting, with trade frictions in an economy fragmenting into rival blocs. This is a global transformation…
Reported by the Editorial Team Year-on-year inflation in the OECD rose to 4.4% in April, up from 4% in March, driven by rising energy prices. Energy inflation continued to soar in April, reaching 13.2%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points compared with March. Food inflation in the OECD also rose, by 0.4 percentage points to 4%, whilst core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained virtually stable at 3.6%. Headline inflation…
By Julia Pastor Whilst we were preoccupied with the evacuation of passengers and crew from a Dutch cruise ship due to an outbreak of a pathogen known as hantavirus, a new Ebola epidemic was confirmed in the Ituri region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We learnt that hantavirus is transmitted by rodents, that it can be fatal, but does not have pandemic potential. Ebola, however, is an old…