Banca March : The countdown for Mercosur and the EU is approaching. The creation of an export alliance between Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the EU has been dragging on for more than two decades and could be settled without a resolution in the coming weeks. An agreement was reached in June 2019 but was not signed as a result of European requests to the South American countries…
The unemployment rate in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stood at 4.8% in September, remaining unchanged at the lowest level in the historical series, which began in 2001, as reported on Tuesday by the organisation, which also points to Spain as the member country with the highest unemployment rate, at 12%. In the ninth month of the year, the unemployment rate remained unchanged in…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The importance of the much-expected meeting between President Biden and President Xi in San Francisco cannot be understated, no matter the likely shallowness of the outcomes.The fact that there have only been two face-to-face since Biden took over from President Trump says it all about the importance of this encounter as the pinnacle of a series of meetings to step up dialogue between the two…
Bankinter | Moody’s has maintained its US debt rating, but worsened the outlook. The credit rating agency maintains the rating at AAA, but changes the outlook to “negative” from “stable”. In its report Moody’s refers to the worsening fiscal situation and the polarisation of politics as long-term concerns for the US economy. Assessment: Rising interest rates, the sharp increase in public debt and a polarised Congress that is unable to…
Banca March: Yesterday in China, inflation returned to negative territory and continues to reinforce expectations of the need for further monetary stimulus. Specifically, October’s CPI was -0.2% year-on-year versus 0% previously and one tenth of a percentage point lower than expected. By components, it should be noted that the fall in inflation came from goods prices, which fell by -1.1% year-on-year in October and accumulated seven consecutive months of declines,…
Banca March: Russia and Saudi Arabia have confirmed that they will maintain voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of 2023, reviewing in December whether to prolong, deepen or end the supply cap. This supply cap began in the spring of 2023, when Russia responded to sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine. Other OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, opted to join voluntary cuts totalling 1.66 million barrels per day…
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) | External headwinds may seem to be only getting stronger, but the worst is likely over for the Korean economy. For most of 2023, the peninsula was reeling from the lagged impact of 300bps rate hike, double digits decline of exports, and uncertainty from US-China geopolitical rivalries that have negatively impacted its key sectors such as semiconductor production. In response, policy makers have made a series of…
F.R.| Through October of this year, some 1,425 CEOs have left their positions at US companies across all industries and statuses, 47% more than the same period last year and the highest number since 2002, according to the latest quarterly Challenger CEO Turnover Report from talent consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. In the third quarter alone, there were 518 CEO departures – mostly from government organisations, NGOs or healthcare companies…
BancaMarch: First signs of weakness in the US labour market, known on Friday. On the one hand, the Non-Farm Employment Creation figure was below 200,000 jobs, and practically half of September’s figure (150,000 against 180,000 expected and against 297,000 of the previous month, revised downwards). In line with the lower job creation, we also saw unemployment rise by one tenth of a point to 3.9%, a rise that came in…
Renta 4: Opening higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.6%, S&P futures 0%), picking up Wall Street’s gains after the close of European markets and awaiting the US employment data. In the background, China’s October Caixin PMIs, like the official ones, show a slowdown and point to an almost stagnant economy: services 50.4 ( versus 51 estimated and 50.2 previously) and composite 50 (versus 50.9 previously). At the corporate level, Apple’s results yesterday…