World economy

mercados globalCM 1

US and China continue to dominate global foreign direct investment flows

Global economyCapital Group| It seems that foreign investment patterns have yet to show a decisive successor to China. Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP peaked around the time of the financial crisis: investment in China stagnated slightly earlier, in the early 2000s, just after its accession to the World Trade Organisation and following rapid inflows into the manufacturing sector. In absolute terms, however, the United States…


fed enero 2024

Fed members talk of “patience”, first cut not likely until end of year or even 2025

Banc March: Round of statements from Fed members, where the word “patience” has been recurrent in their speeches and they delay the first cut to the end of the year and even 2025. The Atlanta Fed president believes that inflation is too high and does not consider it appropriate to lower the cost of money until the end of the year. He also said he was open to raising rates…


IMF outlook

IMF revises growth projections upwards, signals “soft landing” for global economy

BancaMarch | The good and “less good” news from the IMF forecasts. Starting on the more optimistic side, they revise growth projections slightly upwards and suggest that the global economy may be approaching a “soft landing”. The “less good” refers to projections over a five-year horizon (+3.1%), the lowest in decades. GDP growth estimates for the global economy in 2024 increase by one tenth of a percentage point from those…


Xi Jinping

China’s ‘new productive forces’ risk overcapacity bubble

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s Two Sessions – the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – took place from March 4-11 in Beijing. This year, the Two Sessions have been particularly important for understanding where the Chinese economy is heading, as new Premier Li Qiang delivered his first “Work Report,” which marked the beginning of a new economic era….


oil barrels

International Energy Agency report cuts oil demand growth in 2024

BancaMarch : The organisation has pointed to a slowdown in demand in the first quarter of 2024, with a variation that stands at 1.6 million barrels per day, 120,000 barrels per day lower than previously estimated. The reasons include lower than expected consumption in OECD countries due to a warmer than usual winter and a drop in manufacturing activity. Thus, for 2024 as a whole, the IEA has lowered the…


RBI

India’s economy can overtake China’s if it can stay on track

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Will India’s gross domestic product ever surpass that of China? Ten years ago, no one would have given this question much thought. But times are changing. The Chinese economy may now be more than five times larger than India’s, but India is growing much faster than China, and no one expects that to change any time soon. Already, since 2010, India’s economy has overtaken those…


ACS novisimo

ACS to refurbish hospital in Australia through subsidiary Cimic in deal worth €450M

Intermoney | ACS (ACS), through its Australian subsidiary Cimic, has been awarded a contract to refurbish a hospital in the state of New South Wales. The works will involve an investment of €450 million. The work will begin this year and will last until 2028. It will include the refurbishment of numerous departments of the hospital, as well as the construction of new facilities, including the vertical expansion of existing…


china barco

Fitch downgrades China’s debt outlook from stable to negative, but maintains rating at A+ due to still solid growth prospects

Link Securities| Credit rating agency Fitch said, after maintaining its “A+” rating on China and lowering the outlook to “negative” from “stable”, that its review reflects the growing risks to China’s public finance outlook, as the Asian country faces greater uncertainty in its economic outlook, in an environment of transition from property-dependent growth to what the Chinese government envisions as a more sustainable growth model. In addition, Fitch noted that…


China proposes major antitrust law overhaul, curbing internet titans

US trade flows now more diversified, imports from China 8% lower than end 2017

Morgan Stanley| Asia Macro team notes that after the onset of trade tensions with China in 2018 while offshoring has been very limited, trade flows are much more diversified than before. The US now imports much less from China (13.9% vs 21.6% in Dec 17), clearly expanding the number of regions from which it does so: it imports more from Canada, Taiwan, Korea and India … with Mexico and the…


bitcoin bullish

Only 10 days to go before next bitcoin halving

According to BINANCE, there are only 10 days until the next bitcoin halving, when the reward for mining a new block on the network will be halved. The purpose behind these halvings is to limit the supply of new bitcoins coming into circulation, which contributes to bitcoin’s scarcity and deflationary pattern. By limiting supply, it is expected that, if demand continues or increases, the value of bitcoin may also increase…