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World economy 14th April 2025

Trump’s tariffs provoke provision of China’s trading partners and raise trade surplus in March

Bankinter| The Trade Balance shows an increase in the surplus in March to $102.64 billion from $31.72 billion previously and $75.15 billion estimated. This evolution is due to the acceleration of Exports (up 12.4% from -3.0% previously and +4.6% estimated) and the contraction of Imports (down 4.3% from +1.5% previously and -2.1% previously). Analysis team opinion: More solid data than estimated. However, it is a one-off improvement. Uncertainty over the…

World economy 11th April 2025

China already feeling pressure of trade war on CPI – falls 0.1% year-on-year in March

Link Securities | According to official data, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March, falling below the consensus expectation of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of decline, as the trade war with the US threatens to put further downward pressure on prices. However, the latest fall was significantly more moderate than the 0.7% in February, supported by a smaller fall in food…

World economy 2nd April 2025

EU prioritises diplomacy with US, but ready to retaliate with ‘firm’ plan

BancaMarch | Ursula Von der Leyen affirmed that the community as a whole has the power to fight back, with all possible tools on the table. The President of the Commission assured that the bloc is prepared to restrict imports of services of US origin if Trump today makes good on his threat to impose reciprocal tariffs. The EU has the capacity to control trade in services, due to its…

World economy 1st April 2025

Chinese Composite PMI remains in economic expansion zone after rising to 51.4 points in March

Bankinter | The Composite PMI remains in the economic expansion zone after rising to 51.4 points in March (versus 51.1 previously). The Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.5 points (versus 50.4 expected against 50.2 previously) with the Services PMI at 50.8 (versus 50.6 expected against 50.4 previously). Bankinter analysis team”s view: This is good news, but with limited impact. The figures do not yet reflect the impact of the new tariffs…

World economy 19th March 2025

OECD revises global growth estimates downwards and inflation estimates upwards for 2025 and 2026

Bankinter | The estimate of global growth for 2025 now stands at +3.1% from 3.3% previously and for 2026 at +3% from +3.3% previously. Canada and Mexico are the economies most negatively affected due to the impact of growing tariff tensions. In the United States, growth is now expected to be +2.2% by 2025 (+2.4% previously) and +1.6% by 2026 (2.1% previously). For Spain, the forecast has been revised upwards…

World economy 15th March 2025

Ferrovial increases stake in ETR to 48% after buying 5% for €1.34 billion

Intermoney | Ferrovial (FER) (Hold, PO €39) announced on Thursday an agreement with AtkinsRéalis, a Canadian engineering firm formerly known as SNC Lavalin Group, for the sale and purchase of 5.06% of the capital of the ETR407 motorway, for the sum of C$2.09 billion, or approximately €1.34 billion. Ferrovial thus increases its stake in ETR to 48.3%. Ferrovial will acquire 3.3% at the closing of the agreement, while the remaining…

World economy 13th March 2025

Telefónica sells Colombian subsidiary to Millicom for $400 million

Telefónica has agreed with Millicom to sell all the shares it holds in Colombia Telecomunicaciones, representing 67.5% of its share capital, for approximately $400 million, as reported by the company to the CNMV. This represents an equity value of more than seven times EBITDA and the deconsolidation of debt of nearly €1.2 billion. “This operation is part of the asset portfolio management policy of the Telefónica Group and is aligned…

World economy 12th March 2025

CAF subsidiary Solaris wins first contract in Canada to supply Translink with 107 trolleybuses for €120 million

Link Securities | The Canadian transport operator TransLink, from the city of Vancouver, has awarded Solaris, a subsidiary of CAF, the contract for the supply of 107 trolleybuses for approximately €120 million, with the option of increasing the number of units contracted. At the end of last year, Solaris announced that it had been awarded its first contract in the USA, specifically for the supply of electric buses to the…

World economy 10th March 2025

Atlanta Fed forecasts US GDP to contract by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, compared to 2.3% growth expected two weeks ago

Last week, nearly all sectors of the S&P 500 weakened. The financial sector lost significant ground on the 4th (-4.67%), with stocks like Citi and Wells Fargo showing very poor performance. In the technology sector, the biggest setbacks were seen in Intel (-6.2%) and Tesla (-4.5%). President Donald Trump’s tariff policies can be seen as an act of ‘throwing stones on his own roof’ as they create uncertainty, which has…

World economy 8th March 2025

As US withdraws Chevron’s licence to export crude from Venezuela, what will happen to Repsol’s strategic assets in Tomoporo and La Ceiba?

Banco Sabadell | According to press reports, the US has withdrawn Chevron’s licence to export crude oil from Venezuela, with the effective date of 3 April. This decision is in response to the failure of the Maduro government to fulfil its electoral commitments and is part of a package of extended sanctions that will also affect companies such as Halliburton, Schlumberger, Barker Hughes and Weatherford, which will have to suspend…

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