World economy

India enters the era of Sanatan socialism

India Could Be Poised For A Promising Future

Anirundha Dutta and Brad Freer (Capital Group) | After a slowdown in 2019 and a harsh lockdown in 2020, India may be poised to regain its place among the fastest-growing emerging markets. From e-commerce to banks to real estate, we look at some of the key sectors that could drive the recovery, and where the opportunities may lie for equity investors.

China’s ESG trailblazers

Aberdeen Standard Investments| There There’s growing appreciation among Chinese companies of the value that ESG policies can bring. Here we outline five firms setting the standards for domestic peers to follow. As a global investor, we carry out environment, social and governance (ESG) analysis when we research companies for two reasons: (1) not to lose money; (2) to make money. We believe selecting firms with strong ESG standards improves our chance of avoiding loss-making corporate failures and scandals.

The Missing Pieces to Avoid a Climate Disaster

Felix Haas | Partially through his role with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gates came to learn more about the causes and effects of climate change, which was contributing to and exacerbating many of the problems he and his wife were looking to remedy. In his latest book, Bill Gates has done what many political leaders have not: clearly defined and communicated a roadmap that leads us to a net-zero carbon future.

Erdogan's referendum victory

Turkey – Recession Avoided, But Lira Volatility And High Inflation Remain Issues

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The government and the Central Bank returned to more orthodox economic policies in H2 of 2020. Between September and December 2020 the Central Bank tightened the benchmark interest rate several times, by 875 basis points in total, to 17%. Despite this hike, inflation remains stubbornly high (15.6% in February 2021), and is expected to only gradually decrease in the coming months, due to persistent expectations of high inflation and ongoing price pressure triggered by a weak lira exchange rate. In mid-March 2021, the benchmark interest rate was raised again, by 200 basis points, to 19%. However, President Erdogan dismissed the governor of the Central Bank immediately after – the third dismissal of a governor in less than two years.

The Market Is Hungry For IPOs Here And There

In Europe as well as in the US and Asia, IPO activity is picking up again after the 2020 shortage. We review below the most important expected listings throughout the year, which are coming to brighten up the markets. Specifically, the London Stock Exchange is planning the debut, in the next few days, of the fast food delivery company Deliveroo, in what will be the largest IPO in the last decade.

Suez Canal Container Ship Accident Is A Worst-Case Scenario For Global Trade

Rory Hopcraft, Kevin Jones and Kimberly Tam via The Conversation | It’s estimated that 90% of the world’s trade is transported by sea. As consumers, we rarely give much thought to how the things we buy make their way across the planet and into our homes. That is, until an incident like the recent grounding of a huge container ship, the Ever Given, in the Suez Canal exposes the weaknesses in this global system.

The IMF Will Come To The Rescue

Carlos de Sousa (Vontobel) | Early on in the pandemic the IMF attempted to expand its allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to its member states, to help developing countries cope with the crisis and provide additional global liquidity. The Trump administration blocked this effort at the time, but now the Biden administration is in charge, a consensus appears to be building among the G7 nations regarding the approval of a $500 Bn of SDR allocation.

Change of cycle to cyclical stocks to defensive

US Stock Market: Rational Exuberance?

CaixaBank Research (Adriá Morron and Alex Ruiz) | Since the lowest point recorded last March, the main index for the US equity has risen almost non-stop by around 70%. In recent weeks, this rally has also been accompanied by dynamics in certain US equity segments that are reminiscent of events followed by major stock market adjustments in the past. Is the US equity market decoupling from economic fundamentals?