World economy

Is All The Vaccine Good News Priced In?

Mobeen Tahir (Wisdom Tree) | The rollout of the vaccine worldwide and its impact, along with everything else that might happen next year, remain uncertain. Thus, what could move markets in 2021? We endorse the notion of a high-quality core equity exposure complemented by targeted growth opportunities – particularly in spaces like cloud computing, AI or clean energy. Sectors built on innovation will remain exciting as markets can never fully price in their growth potential – for innovation is, by definition, new and something that stimulates growth.   

The interests on the benchmark US bonds rose over 3% in April, for the first time since the start of 2014

Are US Treasuries Turning Japanese?

Keith Wade (Schroders) | Clearly, Japan’s debt is significantly higher than the US’. However, it is stable rather than rising. This reflects the poor position of US government finances before Covid-19, where the budget deficit was running at 6.3% of GDP at a time when the economy was doing well with unemployment at less than 4%, a 50-year low. (In net terms the comparison is less stark with Japan at 180% GDP versus 114% in the US).

Learning To Become The World’s Second-Richest Man

Peter Isackson | A year ago, Elon Musk was officially worth about $20 Bn. Two weeks ago, he became the world’s second-richest person, with a fortune estimated at $128 Bn. Thus, Musk deserved a lengthy video interview with the Wall Street Journal. It could probe into how Musk managed to become the world’s wealthiest and most admired innovator. The Journal couldn’t saddle any random hack with that formidable task, and so its editor-in-chief, Matt Murray, rose to the occasion. The interview lasted half an hour and can be viewed on YouTube.

Mexican flag

Banxico To Remain On Hold While Addressing Senate Bill Concerns

The last policy meeting by Banxico in 2020 is set to capture broad attention, as several topics alongside the monetary policy agenda will be on the table. In addition to a debated interest rate cut, Banxico will be faced with concerns over the recently approved Senate bill on excess dollars, dollar auctions from Fed swap lines, and the departure of one of the board directors.

USA, Banana Republic: Its Economy In The Hands Of The Fed

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The catastrophe following the elections, with president Donald Trump refusing to admit electoral defeat and practically the entire Republican Party supporting him, has confirmed the US is almost a developing country but without malaria. With the US in a political situation of underdevelopment, the management of the economy until Trump leaves the White House, passes to the Federal Reserve. In principle, this is on the outside of political disputes.

Who Owns Intellectual Property?

Peter Isackson | The entire Western economy has consistently relied on theft to establish inalienable rights of ownership over what are essentially vaporous ideas.Those who understand the true history of Apple’s emergence as the paragon of creative innovation appreciate the fact that what Jobs did was so not much theft as the appropriation of existing ideas. Dmitry Dragilev explained how it all happened while offering his redefinition of the process of innovation itself: “take something that has been discovered and improve it.”

Airbnb Going Public Is A Maverick Move

Olga Cam and Mohammad Rajjaque via The Conversation | The travel and tourism industry is hopeful for a much faster recovery than other market segments. There are two reasons for this: first, there is a psychological demand for travel and holidays after a very long lockdown. Second, the availability of cash. The Airbnb IPO seems to be boldly positioned right at the expected beginning of the recovery in Europe and the improving market conditions encouraged last minute share issue price. 

inflation course

What About Inflation? When It Will Come?

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | In the more recent past, the central banks have had enough to deal with trying to combat the risk of deflation linked to the structural changes of recent decades: globalisation, ageing population, digitalisation, etc. And now, practically without any solution of continuity, they have to face a crisis which may lead to new permanent “shocks” in inflation. These would derive from changes in the consumption patterns and from the accelerated digitalisation process. Or from the intensive use of non-conventional monetary policy measures.