The economy grew 7% in 2019, as a surge in exports to the US offset weaker demand from China. Private consumption and fixed investment also performed well, helped by rapid wage growth, rising tourism and export manufacturing. However, in 2020 the economic performance is severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, with GDP growth expected to slow down to 2.3%. Both domestic demand and exports are impacted, with tourism, transport (aviation), electronics, textiles, and agriculture being the most affected industries.
Analysts at BofA Global Research still expect the global oil market to move into a 4.9mn b/d deficit in 4Q20 on the back of the OPEC+ cuts, supporting crude prices. Yet diesel and jetfuel/kerosene make up by far the largest petroleum product group in the oil market. So crude oil prices cannot really rally until distillate demand, jet fuel included, recovers to more normal levels in the next few months.
The Libra Association has hired former HSBC European head James Emmett as the managing director of Libra Networks — the operating company subsidiary of the association. Libra said on Thursday that Emmett, who spent more than 25 years at HSBC and recently stepped down as the CEO of HSBC Bank plc and Europe, is joining in October. Stuart Levey, CEO of the Libra Association, who also joined from HSBC recently, reportedly, said Emmett’s leadership “will help make Libra’s vision a reality.”
In 1993, both India and China were equally poor with GDP at USD377 per capita. Fast forward to 2019, India GDP per capita rose to USD2,104 while China fast-tracked to USD10,261… The only country that is comparable in size to China is India, as one has 1.40bn people and the other 1.33bn people, respectively. Combined, they are home to 36 percent of the world’s population. From May until the recent truce engineered in Moscow, the China-India border dispute has threatened to fracture efforts to foster bilateral ties between the two economies, such as the India banning of Chinese apps in response to the conflict.
Link Securities | After the publication of the Fed’s meeting’s statement and the intervention of Jerome Powell, the central bank’s “performance” did not end up pleasing everyone. It adhered to the script. The Fed confirmed that the majority of its members do not expect increases in official interest rates until the end of 2023. They also reiterated that they will allow inflation to stay above 2% for a while, until the objective of reducing the jobless rate to pre-pandemic levels is achieved.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, meaning he was poised to replace Shinzo Abe as prime minister of Japan. Suga has been confirmed by a vote in the Diet on Wednesday 16 September. This comes after Abe announced in late August that he planned to step down due to ill health. Suga could reignite structural reforms although his top priority is containing the virus, says Schroders.
Jinyue Dong / Betty Huang (BBVA Research) | A batch of economic activity indicators announced yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics pointed to a continuing growth momentum in August. Industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all showed remarkable improvement from their previous month’s readings and beat the market consensus.
Intermoney | TikTok rejected Microsoft’s offer and chose Oracle as its partner in the US. Finally, an agreement was reached via a preliminary “technical partnership,” which did not include a complete sale of the short video applications. In turn, Oracle committed to addressing the national security concerns the Trump administration had raised about TikTok. It will also allow existing ByteDance investors to participate in the final agreement.
China’s economic activity in August exceeded expectations, with industrial production accelerating at the strongest pace in eight months and retail sales growing for the first time this year. The activity data shows that the recovery is becoming more balanced and broad-based as private sector demand is gaining momentum.
The new strategy plays on the asymmetry of monetary policy: it is easier to let inflation accelerate in good times – which only entails not acting (keeping rates unchanged) – than propping it up in bad times, because at some point the latter would require ever more action which would collide with the zero bound limit to policy rates.