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In the World, World economy 21st August 2025

UK inflation remains high due to pressure from services, complicating BoE’s position

Bankinter | CPI (July): 3.8% year-on-year versus 3.7% expected and 3.6% previously. Underlying: 3.8% versus 3.7% expected and previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: Inflation remains high, pressured by services (+ 5.0% versus 4.8% expected and 4.7% previously) and complicates the BoE’s position, which faces a cooling economy and labour market in an environment of high prices. Inflationary pressures have increased in recent months, reaching 3.8% in July versus 2.6% in…

In the World, World economy 13th August 2025

Trump signs executive order to extend trade truce with China for another 90 days

Link Securities | US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to extend the trade tariff truce with China for another 90 days, as confirmed by Trump himself and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. With the latest round of negotiations set to expire early Tuesday morning, this pushes the deadline to mid-November, providing crucial relief for seasonal import increases ahead of Christmas. The US will maintain 30% tariffs on Chinese…

In the World, World economy 12th August 2025

Prices in China remain positive for second consecutive month

Bankinter | CPI (July): +0.0% year-on-year versus -0.1% expected versus +0.1% previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: prices remain positive for the second consecutive month. The underlying rate reached +0.8% compared to +0.7% previously. It seems that the government measures to moderate excessive competition in some sectors are beginning to have some effect, despite the fact that industrial prices continue to exert downward pressure (-3.6% year-on-year in July compared to -3.3%…

In the World, World economy 12th August 2025

US imposes tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars

Link Securities | The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars, a move that threatens to disrupt the global bullion market and deal a further blow to Switzerland, the world’s largest precious metals refining centre, according to Expansión. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to duties, according to a letter…

In the World, World economy 8th August 2025

China’s July trade balance shows larger-than-expected slowdown in surplus

Link Securities | Dollar-denominated exports rose 7.2% year-on-year in China in July, beating the Reuters consensus of 5.4% and following 5.8% growth in June. Bloomberg highlighted that the resilience of Chinese exports came despite US tariffs, indicating strong global demand and exports remaining a key factor in the economy. Imports rose 4.1% year-on-year in July, contrasting with the expected 1.0% decline and accelerating growth from 1.1% in June. Imports, growing…

In the World, World economy 5th August 2025

OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 547,000 b/d in September and ends restoration of 2.2 Mb/d withdrawn from market in 2023

Bankinter | OPEC+ agreed to increase production in September by 547,000 b/d. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase. With this move, it completes the restoration of 2.2 Mbd that it withdrew from the market in 2023. OPEC justifies its decision on the basis of the stability of the global economic outlook and the solid fundamentals of the market (low inventory levels). As a reference, OPEC+ (which includes other countries…

In the World, World economy 4th August 2025

China’s manufacturing PMI returns to contraction territory, falling to 49.5 points in July

Bankinter | The Caixin manufacturing PMI returns to economic contraction territory (<50 points) after falling to 49.5 points in July (versus 50.4 expected and 50.4 previously). Bankinter analysis team view: The decline in activity reflects the loss of momentum in global trade due to the trade war and weak domestic demand in China. The manufacturing PMI has been in expansionary territory continuously from October 2024 to April 2025, but everything…

In the World, World economy 31st July 2025

IMF raises global growth forecast two tenths to 3% for 2025 and one tenth to 3.1% for 2026

Bankinter | Yesterday, the IMF revised its global GDP growth forecasts upwards for both 2025 to 3.0% year-on-year (from 2.8% in its April 2025 projection) and for 2026 to 3.1% (from 3.0% previously). By country, it made a general improvement in its forecasts for 2025 as tariff uncertainty cleared somewhat (US 1.9% versus 1.8% previously; EMU 1.0% versus 0.8% previously and Japan 0.7% versus 0.6% previously). The revision for China…

In the World, World economy 31st July 2025

US-China Trade talks conclude with no explicit decision

Link Securities | Trade negotiations between the US and China concluded on Tuesday, with negotiators suggesting that the meeting was productive but without making any major announcements. No explicit decision was taken, nor was a 90-day extension of the deadline for imposing tariffs agreed, which in China’s case is 12 August. In this regard, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is an option but that President Trump will make…

In the World, World economy 30th July 2025

Trump ‘probably’ to impose 15-20% tariff on countries that have not negotiated agreements

Link Securities | The digital portal Bolsamania.com reported that President Donald Trump has indicated that he will ‘probably’ implement a general tariff of between 15 and 20% on imports to the United States from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements. ‘For the world, I would say it will be somewhere between 15 and 20%… I just want to be nice,’ the president said during a press conference with…

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