World economy

Frontier markets on the front foot

Vietnam: Robust Growth Rates Have Come To An End

The economy grew 7% in 2019, as a surge in exports to the US offset weaker demand from China. Private consumption and fixed investment also performed well, helped by rapid wage growth, rising tourism and export manufacturing. However, in 2020 the economic performance is severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, with GDP growth expected to slow down to 2.3%. Both domestic demand and exports are impacted, with tourism, transport (aviation), electronics, textiles, and agriculture being the most affected industries.

OPEC post-mortem

OPEC+ Wants Members To Fight Shoulder To Shoulder…

Analysts at BofA Global Research still expect the global oil market to move into a 4.9mn b/d deficit in 4Q20 on the back of the OPEC+ cuts, supporting crude prices. Yet diesel and jetfuel/kerosene make up by far the largest petroleum product group in the oil market. So crude oil prices cannot really rally until distillate demand, jet fuel included, recovers to more normal levels in the next few months.

Don't fear the Libra - worry about retail central bank digital currency instead

Crypto Corner: Libra Hires HSBC Banking Chief

The Libra Association has hired former HSBC European head James Emmett as the managing director of Libra Networks — the operating company subsidiary of the association. Libra said on Thursday that Emmett, who spent more than 25 years at HSBC and recently stepped down as the CEO of HSBC Bank plc and Europe, is joining in October. Stuart Levey, CEO of the Libra Association, who also joined from HSBC recently, reportedly, said Emmett’s leadership “will help make Libra’s vision a reality.”

The China-India Conflict Highlights The Urgency For Modi To Do More To Harness India’s Advantages

In 1993, both India and China were equally poor with GDP at USD377 per capita. Fast forward to 2019, India GDP per capita rose to USD2,104 while China fast-tracked to USD10,261… The only country that is comparable in size to China is India, as one has 1.40bn people and the other 1.33bn people, respectively. Combined, they are home to 36 percent of the world’s population. From May until the recent truce engineered in Moscow, the China-India border dispute has threatened to fracture efforts to foster bilateral ties between the two economies, such as the India banning of Chinese apps in response to the conflict.

Fed's balance sheet size

The Fed Officially Adopts A Flexible Inflation Target; Interest Rates Close To 0% Until 2023

Link Securities | After the publication of the Fed’s meeting’s statement and the intervention of Jerome Powell, the central bank’s  “performance” did not end up pleasing everyone. It adhered to the script. The Fed confirmed that the majority of its members do not expect increases in official interest rates until the end of 2023. They also reiterated that they will allow inflation to stay above 2% for a while, until the objective of reducing the jobless rate to pre-pandemic levels is achieved.

Suganomics: Where Now For Japan After Abe?

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, meaning he was poised to replace Shinzo Abe as prime minister of Japan. Suga has been confirmed by a vote in the Diet on Wednesday 16 September. This comes after Abe announced in late August that he planned to step down due to ill health. Suga could reignite structural reforms although his top priority is containing the virus, says Schroders.

TikTok And Oracle Reach A “Technical Agreement”; Control And Ownership Remain With China

Intermoney | TikTok rejected Microsoft’s offer and chose Oracle as its partner in the US. Finally, an agreement was reached via a preliminary “technical partnership,” which did not include a complete sale of the short video applications. In turn, Oracle committed to addressing the national security concerns the Trump administration had raised about TikTok. It will also allow existing ByteDance investors to participate in the final agreement.

China: Growth Gained Momentum In August

China’s economic activity in August exceeded expectations, with industrial production accelerating at the strongest pace in eight months and retail sales growing for the first time this year. The activity data shows that the recovery is becoming more balanced and broad-based as private sector demand is gaining momentum.

Next Fed's chairman Jerome Powell to take over on February 5

FED: Subtle To The Point Of Evanescence

The new strategy plays on the asymmetry of monetary policy: it is easier to let inflation accelerate in good times – which only entails not acting (keeping rates unchanged) – than propping it up in bad times, because at some point the latter would require ever more action which would collide with the zero bound limit to policy rates.