Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Princeton professor and BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award winner, says: “As public debt grows, rates tend to rise, until they are close to those of private debt, which are higher than the rate of GDP growth. The spreads on public and private debt are not immutable over time and, paradoxically, some people seem to think that this is the case, that the coupon on…
Catherine Macaulay & Rodrigo Kohn (Schroders) | As climate change ambition ramps up across the world, emissions reduction targets in the autos sector will likely be forced to tighten further. Numerous countries – including Norway, France, the UK, Sweden, Ireland and the Netherlands – have already announced internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle phaseouts between 2025-2040. At the same time, technological advancements continue to transform the industry. Production processes are increasingly automated, autonomous driving technology is growing in sophistication, and consumer expectations around the digital experience of vehicles continue to increase.
Baker McKenzie | H1 2021 saw a surge in IPO activity, driven by high liquidity, investor enthusiasm and the rise of SPACs. Capital raising during H1 2021 reached historic highs at over USD 290 billion, the first time that over USD 200 billion was raised during the first half of any year. This reflects a 220% year-on-year increase in capital raising. Deal volume also grew at a strong 143% year-on-year…
Portocolom AV | China currently dominates the solar industry, with Chinese companies controlling around 80% of the global solar supply chain, from raw material refining to panel production and assembly. In 2020, 45% of the global supply of poly silicon, the key refined material that comprises 95% of solar panels, came from China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. The governments of the US, UK, Canada and the Netherlands have declared that China has committed genocide and crimes against humanity in its treatment of Uighurs and other Muslim-majority peoples in Xinjiang.
Mathieu Racheter, Strategy Research, Julius Baer | Global healthcare remains our most preferred defensive sector due to attractive valuations in combination with solid growth perspectives. We see a number of structural tailwinds including demographics, big data, and increased demand in emerging markets, all of which should continue to drive above-average sales and earnings growth going forward. Healthcare remains our most preferred defensive sector due to attractive growth perspectives and undemanding…
Sean Markowitcz (Schroders) | Since the 1970s, there have been approximately 11 rising yield cycles. Yet, contrary to popular belief, these periods were overwhelmingly positive for the stock market. For example, US equities delivered a positive total return in nine of these episodes, with an annualised average performance of 13.4%.
James Barrineau (Schroders) | Since March of last year, emerging market (EM) currencies have risen by a gaudy 12.8% versus the US dollar. Near-term there have been some sizable moves, such as a 10% gain for Brazil’s real versus the US dollar since the end of March this year. That naturally leads to the suggestion that EM currencies may be getting expensive, but such a view does not take into…
Nicolas J.S. Davies | Around the world, we are witnessing what can happen when people rise up and act collectively for the common good. That is how we will solve the serious problems we face, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the climate crisis to the terminal danger of nuclear war. Humanity’s survival into the 22nd century and all our hopes for a bright future depend on building new political and economic systems that will simply and genuinely “do what is best for all of us.”
Fernando Alberca | For the Salvadorian president, Nayib Bukele, the impact of this measure will be very positive: “In the short term, this will generate jobs and help bring financial inclusion to thousands of people outside the formal economy. And in the medium and long term, we hope this small decision can help us push humanity, at least a little bit, in the right direction.”Although the US dollar is the official currency in El Salvador, remittances of dollars from Salvadorian emigrants have to pay high commissions to banks and intermediary exchange houses to transfer them to their home country.
Consumer spending in the United States increased to pre-pandemic levels of around $13.4 trillion in the first quarter of 2021 from $13.0 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020. If the pandemic can be characterised as the economic engine being parked rather than broken, pent up demand could quickly cause consumer spending to overshoot the trend from recent years.