Alphavalue | Our dividend estimate for 2022 is 30 billion euros higher than the figure expected for 2021 (+12%), but is still 60 billion euros lower than a year ago. Excluding the impact of the health crisis, we think that the dividends for 2022 could have reached 360 billion euros. A remarkable difference.
The last policy meeting by Banxico in 2020 is set to capture broad attention, as several topics alongside the monetary policy agenda will be on the table. In addition to a debated interest rate cut, Banxico will be faced with concerns over the recently approved Senate bill on excess dollars, dollar auctions from Fed swap lines, and the departure of one of the board directors.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The catastrophe following the elections, with president Donald Trump refusing to admit electoral defeat and practically the entire Republican Party supporting him, has confirmed the US is almost a developing country but without malaria. With the US in a political situation of underdevelopment, the management of the economy until Trump leaves the White House, passes to the Federal Reserve. In principle, this is on the outside of political disputes.
Peter Isackson | The entire Western economy has consistently relied on theft to establish inalienable rights of ownership over what are essentially vaporous ideas.Those who understand the true history of Apple’s emergence as the paragon of creative innovation appreciate the fact that what Jobs did was so not much theft as the appropriation of existing ideas. Dmitry Dragilev explained how it all happened while offering his redefinition of the process of innovation itself: “take something that has been discovered and improve it.”
Olga Cam and Mohammad Rajjaque via The Conversation | The travel and tourism industry is hopeful for a much faster recovery than other market segments. There are two reasons for this: first, there is a psychological demand for travel and holidays after a very long lockdown. Second, the availability of cash. The Airbnb IPO seems to be boldly positioned right at the expected beginning of the recovery in Europe and the improving market conditions encouraged last minute share issue price.
José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | In the more recent past, the central banks have had enough to deal with trying to combat the risk of deflation linked to the structural changes of recent decades: globalisation, ageing population, digitalisation, etc. And now, practically without any solution of continuity, they have to face a crisis which may lead to new permanent “shocks” in inflation. These would derive from changes in the consumption patterns and from the accelerated digitalisation process. Or from the intensive use of non-conventional monetary policy measures.
Clàudia Canals and Jordi Singla Caixabank Research | The new technology restrictions that the US has imposed on China represent an escalation of the decoupling policy pursued by the current US Administration. Although the distancing between the two powers has a long history, under Trump’s presidency it has become a fully-fledged conflict.
Morgan Stanley | The global manufacturing PMI moderated in November to 53.7 after reaching the peak in October (54.3). Even so it is still above the last 10 years average. In addition, 86% of the PMIs that make it up are still in expansion territory.The PMIs are sequential indicators so it is quite normal to see this moderation after the strong rebound. As for services PMIs, the Eurozone’s main economies saw it fell back to levels below the 50-point threshold. The biggest drop was in France, the lower in Spain.
Alphavalue | Against growing environmental constraints, as well as an uncertain perspective on hydrocarbons, oil companies are modifying their strategy. The electrification of the energy mix appears as an opportunity for the mutation to integrated energy companies. The big oil companies want to be a part of the growing market of renewable energies, but they will compete against the powerful utilities.
Intermoney | In the first nine months of the year, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents a sort of international banking association, global debt has increased by $15 trillion and is likely to exceed $277 trillion by 2020. Thus, at the end of this year, the world debt would amount to 365% of GDP, compared to 320% at the end of 2019, along with the high figures in developed countries that are only possible due to the role of last resort lender of their central banks.