World economy

Tecnicas Reunidas

Técnicas Reunidas wins $1bn contract to build fertiliser plant in Kazakhstan

Técnicas Reunidas (TRE) has won a contract to engineer an ammonia, urea, nitric acid and ammonium nitrate production complex owned by Kazazot, Kazakhstan’s leading fertiliser company. With a total planned investment of around $1 billion, the plant will be located in the town of Aktau, capital of the Mangystau province, in the southwest of the country. Técnicas Reunidas will initially carry out the engineering of the facility under a FEED-OBE…

coronavirus china

China ended 2022 on a gloomy note but reopening will save 2023

Alicia Garcia Herrero & Jianwei Xu (Natixis) | Chinese economy ended 2022 by growing only 3% YoY, with the last quarter GDP slowing further to 2.9% YoY. The figure was finally much lower than the target set during the Two Sessions by the Chinese government mainly because of the heavy mobility restrictions imposed under zero-Covid policies since the Shanghai lockdown. The slowdown in Q4 was particularly reflected in the decelerating consumption…

US retail holiday season 2022

US: Christmas campaign hits $936.3 billion, +5.3% compared to +13.5% in 2021, although above average of last 10 years (+4.9%)

Bankinter| Holiday Season sales (1 November to 31 December) increase +5.3% vs +13.5% in 2021 according to the National Retail Federation. The figure falls short of the latter’s forecast of +6%/+8%. They amount to 936,300 M$ vs 942,600/960,400 M$ expected. According to the Association, part of the purchases were brought forward to October to take advantage of the promotions that were launched across the board that month to reduce inventories….

India enters the era of Sanatan socialism

India’s growth to slow in 2023

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | In India, GDP growth slowed to 7.0% in 2022, down from 8.3% in 2021. In 2023, GDP growth is likely to slow even further to 4.4%, owing to a rapidly weakening global backdrop and slackening domestic demand. There is widespread weakness in the manufacturing industry. Industrial production fell month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis in July and August. These trends, in combination with a manufacturing…

sustainability green planet

29 sustainability taxonomies in development worldwide

F. Rodríguez| According to the conservation organisation World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the think tank Climate & Company, the European taxonomy is one of 29 being developed around the world, 14 of them, including that of the EU, within the group of G20 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Its report last year, When finance…


Economists surveyed by WSJ expect US economy to enter recession in 2023

Link Securities| In the latest quarterly survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, economists indicated that, although inflation has started to decline, they still expect high interest rates to push the US economy into recession in 2023. On average, business and academic economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%, down slightly from 63% in the October survey. Both percentages are historically high outside…

aranceles china

China’s overall trade surplus in 2022 reaches all-time high of $878 Bn

Bankinter| China’s December Trade Balance records a surplus of +$78B vs +$76.9B estimated and +$69.84B previous. Exports decelerate -9.9% vs -11.1% estimated and -8.7% previous. Imports also, but less: -7.5% vs -10% estimated and -10.6% previous. Opinion: The trade surplus widens, which is good news, but it is due to lower imports (a symptom of weak domestic demand) and not to a rise in exports. In fact, exports are falling,…

Japanese general

Japan: The beginning of the end of the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Financial markets were caught off guard when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adjusted its monetary policy on December 20th, 2022. The Bank decided to lift the ceiling on the 10-year JGB yield to 0.5% from 0.25% under the yield control (YCC). One interesting point to make is that the BoJ did not take the decision against the wall. In fact, the upward pressure on the…

2018 Brazil elections are taking place in a particularly challenging environment

Santander, Telefónica, Iberdrola, Aena and Mapfre, Spanish companies most exposed to institutional instability in Brazil

Alphavalue /Divacons | The current political instability in Brazil could harm Spanish companies with an interest in the country. The police have regained control of Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court after the violent invasion carried out by supporters of Jair Bolsonaro. However, and despite the fact that Bolsonaro has distanced himself from the actions of the protestors, the political tension continues. Among the Spanish companies most exposed…

Federal Reserve

Jobs and growth data won’t deter the Fed’s resolve

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…