Bankinter: Fed minutes of the 30/31 July meeting: Main messages: (i) Current situation: the economy is advancing solidly, albeit at a markedly slower pace than in 2H23, the labour market is cooling and inflation is moderating, although it remains somewhat elevated. (ii) Outlook: lower growth in 2H24 due to a weaker labour market, but growth in 2025 and 2026 will remain in line with its long-term potential. Unemployment could pick…
Link Securities | The US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported during the 12-month period to March 2024, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday. Thus, real job growth was almost 30% lower than the 2.9 million net new jobs initially reported in the period from April 2023 to March 2024. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a smaller downward revision of 500,000 jobs. However, job creation over the…
Bankinter: The leading Indicator deteriorated more than expected in July (-0.6% month-on-month from -0.2% previously and -0.4% expected). The Leading Indicator fell by – 0.6% (month-on-month) in July; in year-on-year terms -5.2%, which broke with the slight trend of improvement of the last six months. From a historical perspective, the indicator registers the lowest level since November 2016 (one tenth below April 2020). By components, the improvement in Consumer Orders…
Renta 4: European stock markets point to a new upward opening (EuroStoxx futures +0.27%) to end the weekly session in positive territory . On the bond market, in the US, the 2-year IRR rose more than 14 bps to 4.11%, while the 10-year rose c.+9 bps to 3.91% (3.90 this morning). In Europe, we also witnessed a rebound in IRRs, on average +6 bps, with the T-Bund at c. 2.25%…
CdM | The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated in July to 2.9% year-on-year from 3% in June, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, fell to 3.2% from the previous 3.3%. Both figures were in line with consensus forecasts. Inflation continues to moderate in the US, and the headline index is now at its lowest level since March…
BancaMarch | On expectations of a slowdown in demand from China, OPEC downgrades its global oil demand projections for 2024 and 2025. In its monthly report released on Monday, the cartel forecast demand growth of 2.11 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and 1.78 mb/d in 2025 (down from 2.25 mb/d and 1.85 mb/d previously estimated). In aggregate, according to the group’s forecasts, global demand for this year would…
Link Securities | According to data from the Labor Department, the number of jobless claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending 3 August, below the consensus forecast of 240,000 claimants. Despite the drop, the actual figure remains significantly above the annual average, indicating that while the US labour market has historically been tight, it has softened since its post-pandemic peak. Also, the four-week moving average of initial…
Renta 4 : European stock markets open moderately higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%) after positive US closes, in a session where the S&P 500 posted its best daily performance since November 2022. Yesterday’s better than expected initial jobless claims in the US (233,000 4-week low) helped to alleviate some fears about the US labour market. This helped equity markets, and we also saw a steepening in fixed income, with the US…
Bankinter : The Royal Bank of India (RBI) meets expectations and maintains the benchmark interest rate at 6.50%. It has revised its inflation forecasts upwards for the coming quarters: +4.4% in Q3 versus 3.8% previously and +4.7% in Q4 versus +4.6% previously. It maintains its growth forecast for this fiscal year at +7.2%. Opinion of Bankinter’s analysis team: No surprises. We estimate that it will keep them at the current…
Bankinter | The Bank of Japan says it will not raise rates while markets are unstable. Bank of Japan Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that interest rates will remain at current levels for as long as market volatility persists. He also suggested that the BOJ will carefully consider financial market conditions before making future rate decisions. Bankinter’s research team’s view: Uchida’s dovish message has helped calm markets. The shift towards a…