World economy

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Which Sector Will Suffer More In Asia From Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Asia is far from Ukraine, but the conflict with Russia has rippling effects far beyond borders. From the SWIFT ban to the chip blockade, the West and Asian economies have further sanctioned Russia. Although the financial linkages between Russia and Asia are limited, spillovers on the economy cannot be discounted. In this note, we analyze the impact of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine on key non-financial…


de globalization

The Five Most Promising Markets For 2022: Uruguay, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar And Taiwan

Crédito y Caución | Five markets are particularly poised to offer new opportunities for exporters and investors as the global economy continues its bumpy post-pandemic recovery: Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar, Taiwan and Uruguay. All five markets meet three criteria: good GDP recovery prospects, effective containment of the pandemic, and increased institutional stability of their economic policies and institutions. We expect Côte d’Ivoire to enjoy one of the highest GDP growth…


Swift

The Swift “Weapon Of Economic Mass Destruction”: Could Be Disconnecting Russia Devastating Or Not?

Last week there was already talk about the possibility of excluding some Russian banks from the SWIFT system, so the decision announced by Ursula Von der Leyen in the early hours of Sunday morning was not entirely unexpected. It is considered a “weapon of (economic) mass destruction”. The decision to exclude banks from the SWIFT system has never before been applied to a banking system as interconnected as the Russian…


Rusia Ukrainewar

Rusia Invades Ukraine Damging The Global Economy

Tatiana Orlova (Oxford Economics) | In the early hoursoftoday, Russian military forces attacked military targets across Ukraine. Border guards reported that Ukraine’s territory was being shelled from five regions, including Crimea and Belarus. Due to events over the past 24 hours, with Russia now intent on installing a “friendly” government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Although a protracted…


Rusia's economy recovery

How Much Trade Support Can Russia Find In China?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Given the delicate situation in Ukraine and the US imposition of sanctions on Russia, followed by the European Union (EU), it seems important to assess how much Russia can rely on China as a trading partner. Although trade between the EU and Russia has lost some steam since Putin’s “Pivoting to the East” announced during his 2021 campaign and the sanctions imposed in 2014 due…


US labour

The Great Resignation: Is This A Transitional Phenomenon Or A Sign Of Structural Change?

Clàudia Canals & José Ramón Díaz (CaixaBank Research) | For months now, analysts of the US economy have been debating the labour market’s difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic levels, despite GDP having done so back in Q2 2021. It is surprising that one of the world’s most flexible labour markets is taking so long to regain normality, especially when compared to what is going on in countries such as Spain,…


china central bank

China Continued To Deleverage Towards The End Of 2021 Thanks To The Corporate Sector But With An Increase In Government Debt

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s debt-to-GDP ratio continued to decrease in Q4 2021 to 264.3% from 266.5% in Q3. Notwithstanding the deleverage path in 2021, the debt is still much higher than the pre-pandemic one (247.5% in Q4 2019). Chinese corporates contributed the most to the deleveraging process, as their debt to GDP ratio further dropped to 155.1% in Q4 2021 from 158.3% in Q3 2021. Because of the…


telefonica

Brazil’s Competition Regulator Approves Sale Of Oi To Telefónica, Claro y TIM; Telefónica Will Pay €910 M And Secure 10,5 Extra Clients

Banca March | The board of CADE, Brazil’s competition body, has given the green light to the sale of Oil Movel, the fixed line business belonging to the country’s fourth fixed line operator Oi. It has been bought by the consortium formed by Telefónica – it operates under the Vivo brand in Brazil – Italy’s TIM and Mexico’s Claro. We should recall that the combined offer from Telefónica, TIM and…


An exterior view of China Evergrande Centre in Hong Kong

China’s Regulatory Crackdown: What To Expect?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Chinese policy makers have been engaged in a massive regulatory crackdown for over a year. A number of sectors have been affected, starting with the tech sector, followed by the education sector. At the same time the real estate sector has also been severely affected by a specific regulatory crackdown (the three red lines) and a more general antitrust push has also taken place. In…


LaIndia

India Country Report | Robust Growth Outlook For India ́s Economy In 2022, Provided An Accelerated Vaccination Rollout

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government remain in a strong position. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has an absolute majority in the lower house of parliament, and the opposition remains weak on the national level. While the handling of the second coronavirus wave in early 2021 has dented Modi ́s popularity somewhat, a rising vaccination rate should help him to retain his dominant position…