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Companies restructuring

World economy 31st March 2023

Insolvencies increase sharply as normality returns

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | After two years of decline during the pandemic years, global insolvencies increased by 9% in 2022. The increase was related to the halting of Covid fiscal support packages and the lifting of temporary changes to insolvency legislation. In some markets, insolvencies have completely normalized or even exceed pre-pandemic levels. In the majority of countries, though, we observe that insolvencies are in the process of adjusting…

silicon valley bank

Companies, In the World, World economy 28th March 2023

First Citizens’ purchase of SVB confirms importance of avoiding irrational fear and discriminating between institutions, regardless of size

Bankinter : US banks celebrate the purchase of Silicon Valley Bank/SVB by First Citizens (FC) with a +2.5% rise in yesterday’s session. Positive highlights: First Citizens (+53.7%), First Republic (+11.8%), Bank of America (+4.9%) and Citigroup (+3.8%). Analysis team’s view: This is an interesting deal for First Citizens and good news for US banking and the global financial sector. Our reasoning is as follows: (1) FC acquires SVB’s assets (loans…

dollar rally

World economy 28th March 2023

US bond holdings fall by $76bn in a week: they don’t want bonds, they want cash

Intermoney | First Citizens finally proceeded to buy SVB for $500 million, assuming $56 billion in deposits and $72 billion in loans. The estimated cost of SVB’s bankruptcy has been set at $20 billion, a loss borne by the FDIC and representing 15% of the fund’s total. Not surprisingly, just a year ago, SVB was worth $40 billion and was the 14th largest bank in the US. Just a month…

Kristalina IMF

In the World, World economy 27th March 2023

IMF warns of heightened risks to financial stability

Banca March : Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, has warned of increased risks to financial stability, which “come at a time of higher debt levels”. Georgieva recalled that the global GDP growth forecast is below 3%, mainly due to the war in Ukraine and the restrictive monetary policy.

precios inflacion

In the World, World economy 23rd March 2023

Reaching 2% inflation to be a long schlep for the Fed: aiming for 3.6% this year, 2.6% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025

Intermoney | The same could be said of the update of the macro picture forecasts. Economic projections are not necessarily a roadmap for policy and are subject to change. In fact, they have been changing from quarter to quarter. The projections point to inflation at 3.6% this year, one tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast in December. In 2024 it will moderate (2.6%), but it will not be…

brexit ruptura

In the World, World economy 22nd March 2023

Far from easing, UK CPI rebounds to +10.4% year-on-year from +10.1% previously, puts pressure on BoE

Bankinter : February’s CPI brings a surprise rebounding to +10.4% year-on-year from +10.1% foreseen vs +9.9% expected. Month-on-month is; +1.1% vs +0.6% expected and -0.6% foreseen. The core rate is also surprising, rebounding to +6.2% year-on-year from +5.8% previously and +5.7% foreseen. Month-on-month; +1.2% vs +0.8% expected and -0.9% previously. Analysis team’s view: Negative news. This month’s reading disappoints and, far from easing, as has been the case for the…

Federal Reserve

In the World, World economy 17th March 2023

Fed to consider stricter regulation for medium-sized banks

Banca March | The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank has prompted the Fed to consider extending regulatory restrictions that so far only apply to large Wall Street banks. This would include stricter capital and liquidity requirements, as well as annual stress tests. Specifically, according to Reuters, the institution is currently reviewing the capital and liquidity requirements it imposes on banks, especially those with assets of between $100 and $250…

OPEC post mortem

World economy 16th March 2023

IEA insists on rising oil demand this year: expects 710,000 barrels per day increase in 1Q2023

Link Securities | In a new monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again insisted on the growing demand for oil this year, driven mainly by increased demand from China, according to the newspaper elEconomista.es. The IEA also indicates that there has been a decrease of half a million barrels per day in oil exports from Russia, which will begin to weigh on the supply surplus expected in…

parity euro dolar

In the World, World economy 15th March 2023

Litmus test for American and European inflation will be between April and July, when March-June data is published

Bankinter | The US inflation published today is for February, so we should not expect it to ease because it still compares with months in 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine and, therefore, before the sharp price rises. That means that the real litmus test for inflation (both American and European) will take place between April and July, when the March-June records are published. It was in those months that…

silicon valley bank

World economy 13th March 2023

SVB: everything everywhere all at once?

By Greg MA Hirt, Global CIO, Multi Asset, AllianzGI | Last week Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a bank that specialized in the financing of technology start-ups, came under tremendous difficulties due to massive mark-to-market losses on its portfolios of long-duration bonds, triggering a wave of deposit outflows. This was followed by high market volatility – especially in the US banking sector – with S&P 500 banks shedding more than 15%…