WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | In 2012, 70 companies drilled 134 deepwater wells in the US side of the Gulf of Mexico. On the Mexican side, only one company drilled 6 wells: Pemex. The disparity is one of the reasons explaining why Mexico’s oil production has fallen from 3.5 million bpd in 2005 to 2.5 now. According to the US Geological Survey, the Mexican part of the Gulf of Mexico is, after the Arctic, the largest unexplored oil region in the world.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Stanley Fischer will almost certainly not achieve his dream of being managing director of the IMF, but his legacy can still be deeper than it would have been had he reached it. Earlier this year, the Zambian-born Israeli-American economist completed a successful eight year mandate in the Bank of Israel, and he is now poised to be the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve.
LONDON | By Barry Knapp at Barclays | Tuesday night’s two-year budget agreement between the heads of the House and Senate Budget Committees, Paul Ryan and Patty Murray, looks to be the culmination of a difficult process that has succeeded in stabilizing the US federal government fiscal position for the investable horizon. We have maintained that, since 2010, public policy uncertainty – stemming in part from government spending reaching a post-WWII high, and the associated budget deficit –has helped weaken business confidence and investment.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | For all the talk about the jobless recovery, Barack Obama has, in less than 5 years, created three times more jobs than George W. Bush did in eight years. Under the current president’s tenure, 3,140,000 jobs have been added to the US economy. It is not a bad record of achievement, at least taking into account that, in January 2009—when Obama moved to the White House–, the United States destroyed 600,000 jobs, its worst number in 34 years. Talk about legacies.
MADRID | By Alex García.
LONDON | By Jim McCormick, Anando Maitra and Sree Kochugovindan at Barclays | Nearly a year ago to the day, the LDP and its leader, Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in the Japanese elections. Since then, it has been an extraordinary twelve months for Japan. GDP growth is set to be the highest of all major economies, by a good margin. Inflation and inflation expectations are at the highest levels in some time. The equity market has surged 75% since the election, and the trade-weighted yen has fallen 30%.
Via Credit Suisse | This year will be remembered as a strong year for global equities. While prices are expected to continue rising in 2014, the odd bout of adjustment will provide opportunity.
LONDON | Barclays analysts | The global recovery remained modest in 2013, inflation was somewhat lower than expected, and monetary policy in the developed countries became even more supportive. While these fundamentals would normally suggest that bonds would outperform stocks, the opposite occurred, and in a very big way: bond prices plunged and equity prices soared.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Bitcoin is increasingly present everywhere: newspapers, books, all over the Internet… and everybody seems to be infatuated with this new currency. However, it isn’t as fabulous as they make us think. It’s tricky and it could endanger even more the already damaged global economies.