Bankinter | Aena (AENA) proposes a 3.8% annual tariff increase between 2027 and 2031. We raise our recommendation to Buy from Sell.
Aena’s board of directors has approved its DORA III proposal, i.e. the regulatory framework for the next five years. This assumes investments of €9.991 billion, passenger numbers growing at a rate of approximately 1.5% per year and airport fees increasing by 3.8% per year.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Good news for Aena. Both the increase in fees and the projected number of passengers exceed our estimates, given that we had assumed fee increases of 2% per annum and airport traffic stagnating at 2025 levels (historic highs). This would yield a return of 9% on new investments, which would far exceed the WACC we require in our valuation of Aena (6.9%). We are therefore raising our recommendation from Sell to Buy, with a target price of €30/share (versus €23/share previously), giving a 50% probability of this proposal being approved by the government and the Spanish Competition Authority (CNMC).
