Bankinter | The National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) has approved Neinor’s voluntary takeover bid for Aedas at a price of €21.335 per share, although this is conditional on the price having been agreed in advance with Aedas’ main shareholder (Castlelake, 79% of the capital). If 50% of the minority shareholders do not accept the offer, a mandatory takeover bid will have to be launched. Neinor has already announced that this second takeover bid would be at €24/share, although the price is subject to approval by the CNMV as it must comply with fair price conditions. The acceptance period begins today, 27 November, and will run until 11 December.
Analysis team’s view: We believe there is a high probability of a second takeover bid, in this case mandatory, at a minimum of €24 per share, as it is unlikely to exceed 50% acceptance by minority shareholders in this first takeover bid. On the other hand, although we consider it unlikely, there is a risk that Neinor will demand the compulsory sale at €21.335/share to all shareholders if acceptance exceeds 90%.
AEDAS HOMES: Do not participate in the takeover bid. We recommend waiting for a second offer at a minimum price of €24 per share. An even higher price cannot be completely ruled out, as it must comply with the CNMV’s fair price conditions.
NEINOR HOMES: Good news. In this first takeover bid, 79% of Castlelake is guaranteed, which makes the operation viable. The additional cost of a possible second takeover bid would be insignificant, at €23 million or 1.4% of its capitalisation. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
