Renta 4 | The company’s revenues continue to be affected by the recording of the effects of the work carried out to seal the Castor wells (impact of €6 million on EBITDA). Regulated revenues are down due to the regulatory framework, in line with our forecast. EBITDA, reflecting a result from investees of €155 million, slightly higher than our forecast, and recurring operating expenses in line with 2024, slightly improves forecasts, falling by 11.2% to reach the 2025 target of €670 million. Net profit, which, although in line with our forecast, comfortably exceeds the consensus forecast, reflects the extraordinary accounting effects of the capital gains from the sale of Soto la Marina, Sercomgas and the revaluation of Axent, as well as the fair value update of GSP, while 2024 was affected by the deconsolidation of Tallgrass Energy and the capital loss on GSP. Recurring net profit, which is in line with our forecasts, reaches the guidance of €265 million.
Operating cash flow declined due to the performance of EBITDA, a greater deterioration in working capital compared to 2024 due to lower tolls as a result of the adjustment of the surplus from previous years and the payment of the coupon on the bond issued in January 2024. Despite this, lower investments in this period, financial savings from the cancellation of the Tallgrass debt and the release of the escrow account associated with this operation, lower tax payments and cash inflows from the sale of Soto de la Marina and Sercomgas offset these effects and place net debt slightly above the end-2024 figure, in line with our expectations.
At the conference, we will be watching to see if the company publishes guidance for 2026 results, as well as any possible developments regarding: 1) TGP arbitration, 2) gas network regulation in Spain, and 3) hydrogen regulation. We reiterate our recommendation to overweight, P.O. €17.50.
