Intermoney | Aena (Hold, PO €24) yesterday presented its proposal for DORA III to the markets, the document that will govern investments in airports in Spain in 2027-31, as well as the remuneration that Aena will receive for them. The operator estimates the planned regulated capex at €9.991 billion, concentrated in Barajas and El Prat, among other assets. To finance this effort, Aena is asking for its revenue per passenger to increase by around 20% between 2027 and 2031. Aena proposes a capital discount rate of 9.0%. These proposals only cover regulated activity and do not include all commercial activity, which generates a similar EBITDA.
Assessment: These proposals are from Aena. Now the Directorate General of Civil Aviation will seek the opinion of other industry players, such as airlines, and the government will make a final decision on DORA III around September this year. DORA would come into force in March 2027. The markets have reacted negatively to this news, which we believe is due to concerns about the large volume of capex that would jeopardise, for example, the dividend. In addition to the announced €10 billion, Aena will also have to invest in non-regulated activities and assets abroad, which could add another €3-4 billion in the period 2027-2031. Aena will announce its 2025 annual results, where it will make further comments on the wording of the DORA, on 25 February before the market opens. We expect EBITDA to rise by 8% to €3.79 billion and net profit to increase by 9% to €2.109 billion.
