By Intermoney
Ferrovial (Hold, Target Price €45) has published its Q1 results following the close of trading in New York, and will hold a conference call today at 3pm, which can be accessed via this link.
The key figures, alongside our estimates, are shown in the attached table.
Overall, EBITDA rose by 4% to €321m in Q1, slightly above Intermoney’s estimate (€317m), in what was a period of moderated growth in Construction compared to Q4 2025, and a Motorways business affected by asset maturation and unfavourable forex movements (down 9% in Q1).
Ferrovial did not report figures below EBIT on this occasion, although we estimate that net profit must have been around €125m.
We are not revising our estimates; following annual results that surprised on the upside, particularly in Construction, we have increased our pre-revision EBITDA forecasts for 2026–2028 by an average of 4%, implying, nevertheless, a CAGR of 9% between 2025 and 2028. We are, on average, 3% above the consensus for 2026–2027.
Ferrovial’s revenue grew by 2% in March (4% year-on-year), showing some moderation in Construction growth.
The Group’s revenue rose by 2% in Q1 to just under €2.1 billion, remaining slightly below the year-on-year figure (4%).
Construction, which accounts for over 80% of this figure, saw its growth slow to 3% (compared to Intermoney’s estimate of 6%), significantly lower than the 12% recorded in Q4 alone, and despite a more challenging base effect in Q1 2025. The order book as at December, directly affected by FX, nevertheless rose by 9% compared to 2024 to reach nearly €17.5 billion, indicating potential for revenue growth.
Construction maintained its margins compared to Q1 2025 following an exceptional Q4 2025. Construction’s EBITDA rose by 9% to €95m in March, compared with €91m in the previous month, with favourable trends, although margins fell short of the levels reached in the previous Q4, as expected, when standalone EBITDA stood at €200m, compared with just €106m in Q4 2024.
– Ferrovial Construction essentially maintained its positive EBITDA margins at the start of the year (3.5%) compared to 3.6% last year, which resulted in a 4% decline in EBITDA to €27m. This unit, however, shows a notable recovery from the -1.6% recorded in 2023; whilst
– Budimex accelerated its margins in Q4 25 to an exceptional 14.4%, whilst in Q1 it reported 10.1%, significantly higher than the 8.8% in Q1 25, implying EBITDA growth of 1%, due to a 13% decline in revenue. Webber saw its margins rise by 50 basis points year-on-year as of March, and, despite being fully exposed to the dollar, this caused EBITDA growth to soar by 36%.
–Motorways saw its EBITDA remain stable, slightly below Intermoney’s estimate (2%), due to maturing traffic volumes in the US and the weakness of the dollar.
We have already mentioned that Ferrovial increased its consolidated EBITDA as of March by 4% to €321 million (compared to Intermoney’s estimate of €317 million). In addition to its contribution to the Group’s revenue growth, the greatest from Motorways is always seen at the EBITDA level (up 0% to €235 million), which is therefore slightly below our estimate (2%) The figures show stable growth in the US, albeit somewhat lower than expected, which can be explained by the maturing of projects, although some ramp-up processes are still underway. The exchange rate was particularly unfavourable during the first quarter (down 9% year-on-year). Among the specific assets, we highlight:
– The I-66, consolidated since H2 2023, contributed €218 million compared to €222 million in the previous quarter, currently in the midst of the ramp-up phase, with its EBITDA growing by 13% in Q1 to €53 million.
– Another key development was at 35W, where the effect of the commissioning of section 3C in June 2023 has now confirmed it as the FER asset making the largest contribution to EBITDA (€60 million). The remaining assets in the US were, in general, in line with Intermoney’s estimates.
