Renta 4 | The results have significantly exceeded estimates in the main figures. Ordinary income €1.845 billion (up 6% against Renta 4 estimate and consensus and up 28% against Q4 24), EBIT, the main figure, €199 million (against €173 million Renta 4 estimate, €178 million consensus, up 31% against Q4 24),
EBITDA €231 million (up 13% year-on-year and up 31% compared to Q4 24) and net profit €145 million (up from €106 million in Q4 24 and €93 million in Q4 24) with financial results: €2 million (versus €-8 million Renta 4 estimate) and tax rate: -28% (versus -34% Renta 4 estimate and -26% in Q4 24).
By division, in Defence, revenue up 79% compared to Q4 24 to €643 million (compared to €583 million Renta 4 estimate), EBIT €102 million (compared to €84 million Renta 4 estimate) and EBIT margin 15.8% (Renta 4 estimate 21% and -2.4 pp compared to Q4 24), in Air Traffic, €159 million (up 2% compared to Q4 24) (versus €175 million Renta 4 expected) with EBIT of €9 million (versus €24 million expected) and EBIT margin of 5.4% (expected 13.5% and down 7.5 pp compared to Q4 24), Mobility revenues up 33% compared to Q4 24 to €140 million (Renta 4 estimate €122 million), EBIT €14 million (Renta 4 estimate €7 million) and EBIT margin 10.3% (Renta 4 estimate 6.0% and 4 pp compared to Q4 24) and Minsait (IT), revenues €903 million (versus €864 millionRenta 4 estimate) up 9.7% compared to Q4 24 and up 10.8% excluding currency, EBIT €74 million (Renta 4 estimate €58 million) and EBIT margin 8.2% (Renta 4 estimate 6.7% and up 1.5 pp compared to Q4 24).
New business grows in 2025: up 139% compared to 2024 (up 140% excluding currency), mainly thanks to Defence. In Defence: up 675% and up 675% excluding currency, Air Traffic: up 24% and up 26% excluding currency, Mobility: up 14% and up 16%, and Minsait: up 3.6% (up 5.6% excluding currency). The order book (a precursor to future revenues) grew 122% compared to 2024 (123% excluding currency) and reached new all-time highs, reaching €16.083 billion, offering great visibility for revenue generation.
Indra generated €307 million in cash (versus Renta 4 estimate €159 million), supported by operational performance, a strong recovery in working capital of €239 million (Renta 4 estimate €121 million) and capex of €55 million (Renta 4 estimate €88 million). Taking into account the payment of €627 million for acquisitions, net debt increased to €583 million, at a conservative EBITDA multiple (0.9x). We highlight its favourable liquidity position: €813 million (excluding factoring) from €417 million in Q3 25 and additional credit lines worth €1,175 million (€790 million in Q3 25), with an acceptable maturity schedule for the next three years (€366 million in 2026e, €96 million in 2027e and €240 million in 2028 expected), although we believe that management will decide to refinance and delay maturities.
Indra has exceeded its 2025 targets: Revenue €5.457 billion (versus target > €5.2 billion), EBIT €517 million (versus target > €490 million) and €364 million (versus target > €300 million).
The 2026e targets are: Revenue > €7.0 billion (in local currency), EBIT > €700 million (including the BPO division until its sale) and FCF > €375 million (excluding PEM advances and factoring €187 million). The targets are above our estimates: Renta 4 estimate revenue of €6,768 million, Renta 4 estimate EBIT of €607 million and Renta 4 estimate FCF of €388 million.
These results have far exceeded forecasts and show growth rates never before seen at Indra, thanks to the strong momentum of the Defence division. The high level of contracting and the significant progress in the order book provide strong visibility for the coming years. We expect a positive impact on the share price. P.O. and recommendation Under review (previously P.O.€45.0).
