Renta 4 | On Monday, Neinor Homes held its extraordinary AGM to obtain approval for the takeover bid for AEDAS Homes.
The company also took advantage of the AGM to reiterate its 2025 guidance and provide operational visibility, highlighting: 1) having received the Final Works Certificate (FWC) for 100% of the developments scheduled for delivery in 2025; 2) a 2025 pre-sale coverage ratio of close to 97% and 75% for 2026; 3) 2025 guidance with total revenues in the range of €600-700 million (against Renta 4’s estimate) and EBITDA between €100-110 million (against Renta 4’s estimate).
In terms of commercial activity, the company would have achieved cumulative gross pre-sales for the year of more than 2,200 units (1,701 in the first half), with a total value of more than €750 million in future revenues (€579 million in 1H25). During Q3 2025, the average selling price (ASP) of the total portfolio remained virtually stable at around €340k/home.
Assessment: Further progress is expected in the AEDAS Homes transaction. We would like to reiterate that, in our opinion, the transaction will go ahead without any major administrative obstacles.
Following approval by the National Commission for Markets and Competition (CNMC) and Neinor’s AGM, approval by the Government/Council of Ministers and the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) is still pending. In this regard, the estimated timetable for the transaction, together with relevant comments on the decision of each body, can be found in our latest report on the company. Neinor reiterates its forecast of completing the transaction during Q4 2025.
We reiterate our Overweight recommendation with a target price of €21.10 per share.
